The era of metamorphosis

— Lt. Gen. Dr. SP Kochhar

We have witnessed a phenomenal change in telecommunications over the last few decades. In the seventies having a telephone connection was a luxury and a status symbol. It was a faster means of communication none the less. In the eighties technology saw an upgrade—multiplexing was introduced; teleprinters started replacing morse code telegrams; radio communications saw the introduction of microwave links resulting in increased penetration into rural areas.

Radio broadcasts in different frequency bands was now supplemented by television, which became available to households, while low-capacity data channels got introduced. However, communications remained analog, voice centric and circuit switched with copper and microwave as the primary transport media. However, telecommunications remained a facilitator except in the military where it became the enabler of operations.

The next quantum change came with introduction of fibre and optical communications. Coupled with more advanced multiplexers, capacities increased manifold resulting in increased penetration with affordability. Net radio and radio relay further helped. However, communications remained linear although tandem networking was sparsely introduced. Complex multiplexing techniques, complex antenna designs and efficient electrical and opto electronics increased capacities and ranges as never before. Slowly, computers started getting added as an overlay on low speed data networks. But Telecommunication continued to be a facilitator.

The metamorphic change came with introduction of internet and mobile telephony. It resulted in communication everywhere and data communication made an entry as an entity. Spectrum was auctioned as a commodity. Better utilization of spectrum resulted in an ever-expanding subscriber base, thus offsetting costs of provisioning. With upgrade of mobile technologies, triple play services became possible. With introduction of smart phones and 4G, these triple-play and more applications could be carried and used everywhere on the network. Thus, converged services became a reality on a smart phone.

While telecom was galloping, other technologies like cameras, security, storage, m-commerce, m-gov, mobile applications were not left far behind. They started gravitating towards the smart phone for better penetration. The ICTEC (information, communication, electronics and cyber) convergence happened and new business models emerged. Consumer demands resulted in global markets riding the telecom to give an experience to the consumer that shortened time and increased space of operations—all from a single platform carried by the subscriber.

Voice centricity started giving way to data centricity and a true packetized communication all encompassing network was the result. The connected smart phone now has become an enabler rather than a facilitator.

In the progress towards a high growth economy, the downside (till we reach there) is that the physical infrastructure of roads, transportation and housing is

getting congested. A lot of time is wasted in commuting from home to office or office to office. Demands of producing results are ever increasing and the area of jurisdiction is increasingly becoming global. In short, time is getting condensed and space is expanding.

On the other hand, information highways have huge uncongested capacities and new technologies are making it possible to “commute”, collaborate and produce results without physical movement–thus saving on time and money. It also ties in very well with the aspirations of the emerging generation of knowledge workers who are averse to getting tied down to physical spaces and timings.

Going ahead, we will increasingly see work being collaboratively assigned to and being done by off roll personnel working in their own time and places but adhering to timelines of management. Technologies like Web 2.0, AI, AR, VR, Big Data, Data Analytics, Cloud, Robotics, IOT, m governance, m commerce, Android Apps, smart devices, 3D printing and caching are making this happen.

However, these technologies require a 24X7 high bandwidth communication network to be available to provide the “highways” and hence telecommunication has shifted from being an enabler to becoming an essential ingredient of the system. It will increasingly adapt to emerging requirements of the marketplace, even up to individual requirements, which primarily will be data driven, bandwidth and security centric. Telecom may be taken for granted but without it, the entire chain will collapse having a very negative impact on our economy.

There is bound to be a huge churn in existing roles with lot of downsizing in areas which can be taken over by the aforementioned technologies. Disciplines based on new data sciences will emerge. Devices will converge to connected smart devices with huge acquisition and processing powers and standalone devices like TV will fade away. Offerings will hugely converge in the intra and inter discipline spaces. Therefore, merger and acquisition of unrelated companies will start happening.

However, core telecom services are showing a downward trend in ARPU because of high cost of provisioning which includes bandwidth and equipment amongst others. Hence, to make operations profitable, operators will increasingly start providing or facilitating multi-disciplinary applications over their telecommunication nee ICTEC networks.

The trend towards this is already visible. Increasingly we will witness single window multi-disciplinary fused user-friendly offerings to consumers. However, back end components of the system which has made this happen will be complex technology formulations duly integrated within the framework of collaboration which itself will be facilitated by AI and robotics.

We are in for exciting but challenging times. One factor that emerges clearly is that life without Telecom today is increasingly becoming unthinkable.