Five predictions for 2018

WE WILL HAVE A NEW ROLEX SUBMARINER

I have been telling anyone who’ll listen that “next year, there’s going to be a new Submariner” for two years, and while it hasn’t happened yet, as time passes my odds increase of being right. So I’m doubling down on this one – a new Sub to be revealed at Baselworld 2018 in March, causing a total frenzy among Rolex nerds.

SOCIAL SALES

By the end of 2018, at least one major brand will open up Instagram as a regular sales platform. We’ve already seen Omega use it to stoke interest for a limited-edition Speedmaster, and other lifestyle brands are wise to the one-tap buying potential of Insta.

NO MORE COMPLICATED WATCHES

This was a fairly quiet year for a lot of the usual purveyors of complex watchmaking, as brands have shied away from the investment needed as sales dropped. Business does seem to be picking up, but the time taken to develop new watches means it could be 2019 before we see much in the way of fancy new tricks.

1980S STYLE

There is zero chance that big watch companies will stop mining the past for ideas, but I think we will see them move away from the 1960s and ’70s to dig up some of the more interesting looks of the 1980s – the more switched-on, such as Audemars Piguet, have already.

A SERIOUS SWISS SMARTWATCH

Call me cynical, but I don’t quite believe the hype around the smart efforts by TAG Heuer, Montblanc et al so far. If there is a luxury Swiss smartwatch that can genuinely rival Apple, it hasn’t surfaced yet. In 2018, it just might, but don’t ask me who’s going to make it.