DUP shouldn’t lose Lagan Valley, but it is a measure of unionism’s decline that it’s even at risk

IT is a measure of how much the DUP has squandered, and how much unionism has declined, that Lagan Valley is even being discussed as a possible Alliance gain in this election.

What was once one of unionism’s most impregnable seats is now vulnerable to an extent which would have been unfathomable just a few years ago — and that was before Sir Jeffrey Donaldson was charged with rape and other serious sex offences (which he denies) and announced he wouldn’t be quitting politics.

As recently as 2010, unionists took almost 80% of the vote in Lagan Valley; in 2017, Donaldson alone took almost 60%, with Alliance on 11%.

To put that into perspective, in the last Westminster election nationalism took 65% of the vote in South Belfast if People Before Profit is excluded (81.7% if PBP is counted as nationalist).

That this is even in danger of being lost for unionism is an astonishing example of its problems over the last decade.

Brexit has been central to that shift. In the last Westminster election, in 2019, Donaldson’s vote fell to 43% while Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood polled almost 29%.

This is still a seat the DUP should win. The 2019 election was focussed on Brexit and involved an unusual level of tactical voting for pro-remain candidates. To increase that vote will be difficult for Eastwood, even though her ability to present herself as the leading challenger could be significant. Last time, the UUP’S Robbie Butler took 19% and he is contesting the seat vigorously.

The great unknown is the impact of Donaldson’s political demise. Based on what we know, the DUP has acted almost flawlessly in how it suspended him within hours of becoming aware of the charges and gave full support to the police investigation.

It is hard for a fair-minded person to accuse the party of having acted improperly. And yet, with no precedent for such an astonishing set of circumstances, it is hard to know how the voters who made Donaldson will react to the charges he now faces.

The party also hasn’t treated the constituency with care. Donaldson promised live on

TV a few days before the 2022 election that he’d take his seat in Stormont, but then quickly broke that promise, parachuting in Emma Little-pengelly so that he could stay as an MP.

Edwin Poots was moved out of the constituency to stand in South Belfast, an odd fit, while Mrs Little-pengelly went the other way. This was as haphazard as it looked, and won’t have impressed some voters.

On Thursday, Stephen Nolan reported that Paul Givan has ruled himself out as a candidate. That appears to leave Mrs Little-pengelly and Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley as options.

If Mr Buckley is chosen as the candidate, that would involve fewer risks.

The risks for Mrs Little-pengelly are immense; she’s repeatedly struggled in elections and leaving Stormont when she’s at the peak of her career would be both unpalatable personally and destabilising for devolution.