Fine Gael’s phoney war a distraction from the battle royale in the north

WHILE most attention here has been focussed on the ins and outs of the Fine Gael leadership ‘ battle’ – scuffle seems more appropriate – a much more important contest unfolds this week in Northern Ireland. On Thursday voters in the six counties will go to the polls in an election that has been described in many circles as the most significant since the Good Friday Agreement that created the Northern Ireland Assembly almost 20 years ago.

As the poll looms, Sinn Féin and the DUP remain neck-and-neck after a bitter six week battle – primarily led by Arlene Foster and countered by Michelle O’Neill – which makes the machinations of Coveney, Varadkar and company look like a schoolyard scrap over a penny sweet.

Sinn Féin collapsed the Assembly in mid January. While the move was ostensibly over the ‘Cash for Ash’ scandal, many other factors were in play. These included the DUP’s stance on Brexit and gay marriage; cuts to Irish language funding and – perhaps most important of all – Martin McGuinness’ failing health.

Internal anger among Sinn Féin’s core supporters, over perceived concessions to the DUP on various key matters, will have also added pressure on the party’s leadership to eventually pull the plug on the power sharing arrangement.

For their part, Foster and the DUP – who have been rocked by a succession of scandals in recent years – are fighting a desperate rearguard action to maintain their leading position on the province’s political stage.

To this end, fear has been Foster’s weapon of choice. However, with her last sparring partner Martin McGuinness having left the ring, she has been forced to switch targets and a post-Brexit border poll and the DUP’s old Bogeyman Gerry Adams have filled the gap.

This is all playing out against an electoral backdrop that will see the number of seats in the Assembly slashed from 108 to 90. Polls would suggest that the DUP and Sinn Féin will emerge with around 30 seats apiece with the Ulster Unionist Party, SDLP and Alliance parties lagging far behind.

Given the spectacular fallout between the parties – and the vicious election campaign they have waged – it is extremely difficult to see them agreeing a new power-sharing deal anytime soon.

At best, this means weeks or months of uncertainty – and possibly a return to some form of direct rule from London – just as the UK triggers the Brexit process. And as all this unfolds, many people south of the border – including quite a few politicians – don’t seem to grasp the potentially enormous implications for the Republic.

Enda Kenny is our self declared Brexit minister and at a joint conference in Brussels last week with European Commission president Jean- Claude Juncker, Mr Kenny said he is entirely focused on Brexit discussions.

But given recent events – the McCabe/Tusla scandal and the so-called ‘ heave’ – it is entirely reasonable to ask his handlers how much time and attention he has actually been able to give this vitally important issue.