What message can the Pope deliver to a society that has changed utterly?

THIS August Pope Francis will follow in the footsteps of his predecessor John Paul II and address the Irish people in Phoenix Park. But – almost 40 years on – what will the pontiff have to say to a society that has changed beyond all recognition and to an Irish Catholic Church that is a shadow of its former self in terms of its influence?

If one needs evidence of the Church’s vastly reduced position in modern Irish society, one need only look at the numbers that are expected to travel to Knock, Croke Park and Phoenix Park to see the Bishop of Rome.

Back in 1979, around 2.7 million people travelled to see Pope John Paul II at events in Dublin, Drogheda, Knock, Clommacnoise, Galway, Limerick and Maynooth.

In Dublin alone 1.2 million people attended the special Mass held at the specially erected Papal Cross in Phoenix Park. Later that day a further 750,000 people lined the streets of the capital as the Pontiff Travelled to Áras an Úachtaráin to meet with then President Patrick Hillery.

In Knock, 450,000 attended another Mass while a crowd of over 400,000 – far higher than had been expected by the organisers – turned up for the final event of the Papal tour, a Mass at Limerick’s racecourse. Looking back the numbers seem astonishingly high but we must remember that Ireland in 1979 was a very, very different place to the country we live in now.

The demand for tickets to see Pope Francis’ appearances at Knock, Croke Park and Phoenix Park is seen in some quarters as surprisingly high and tickets are being snapped up quickly.

However, the numbers represent only a fraction of those seen in 1979. In all, some 600,000 people will see the Pope in August, that’s less than a quarter of the number who attended the official events 39 years ago.

The Catholic Church is hoping the visit will provide it with a much needed boost and – based on what has happened following other recent Papal visits around the world – in likelihood it will. It may, however, be far more modest than the Catholic Hierarchy are hoping for. If the visit is to kick-start a revival in the Church’s fortunes then Pope Francis will need to strike a conciliatory tone.

Pope Francis is seen as a reforming and relatively liberal figure – at least for a Pope – but some of his recent comments revealed a different, and more traditional, side to him.

During a trip to Chile in January Pope Francis prompted outrage when he defended Bishop Juan Barros who is accused of leading a cover-up that protected a Chilean priest, Father Fernando Karadima, who was sentenced to a “lifetime of penance” for decades of child sexual abuse.

The Church’s decline in Ireland is largely, though not entirely, down to its failure to properly deal with serial child rapists within its ranks as well as the systemic abuse of women in its many prison-like institutions.

If he is to help the Irish Church restore its fortunes – and avoid another scandal like the one that followed his trip to Chile – Pope Francis will need to consider his remarks carefully while he’s here.