Citizens’ Assembly fiasco is a political time bomb that’s waiting to explode

THE looming Eighth Amendment repeal referendum was always going to be a bitter and viciously contested battle but the revelations about how some members of the Citizens Assembly were picked could turn the already thorny campaign on its head. Ever since its formation there has been constant and severe criticism of how the Assembly’s 99 members were selected.

The recruitment process – carried out by polling company Red C – was supposed to guarantee a balanced selection that would represent all views, ages, genders and regions.

When the details of the Assembly’s composition was first announced there was immediate criticism when it emerged that nine rural counties had no representation on the panel.

This was seen as a lack of balance and allegations that the Assembly had a major urban bias came thick and fast.

Amid the furore Red- C issued repeated assurances that the selection of Assembly members had been carried out in a rigorous and scientific manner that was carefully designed to guarantee balance and ensure all opinions and sectors of Irish society were represented equally.

These guarantees were shattered last week when it emerged that seven members of the Assembly – who took part in its meetings on January 13 and 14 – had not been selected randomly and had, in fact, been recruited through the friends and family of one individual Red- C recruiter.

The revelations will deliver a hammer blow to the Assembly’s credibility with a large section of the population and they will re-enforce prior criticism of the body, which has been the subject of repeated attacks from the pro-life anti-repeal side.

It must be noted that the seven improperly recruited Assembly members were not part of the body when it discussed the Eighth Amendment and later voted to allow abortion up to 12 weeks.

Assembly Chairperson Supreme Court Judge Mary Laffoy has also insisted that she is satisfied the affair had no impact on the work of the Assembly on previous topics, including abortion.

Her assurances, however, have not been met with universal acceptance and there have already been calls in the Dáil for the Citizens Assembly to be scrapped and for the Repeal Referendum to be postponed.

This would represent the nuclear option and seems highly unlikely but the affair could still have an enormous impact on the referendum.

The most recent opinion polls suggest the vast majority are in favour of repealing the Eight Amendment. Significantly, however, over half are either against or unsure about allowing unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks, as the Assembly has suggested and which the Dáil is expected back if there is a vote to repeal.

The damage to the Assembly’s credibility – whether justified or not – could have a major impact on key undecided voters and it could potentially provide the basis for future appeals against any abortion legislation eventually passed by the Dáil.

Either way its a political bomb that’s now primed to explode under the pro-repeal and pro-choice campaigns.