Will this ‘Sinn Féin Tsunami’ ever reach the shoreline?
JOHNNY MYTHEN DISCUSSES THE GROWTH OF WEXFORD SINN FÉIN, THE POSSIBILITY OF RUNNING A SECOND WEXFORD CANDIDATE, GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND HEALING THE SCARS OF THE PAST
WHEN the papers hit the shelves on February 11, they carried news of a ‘Sinn Féin Tsunami’. Johnny Mythen had romped home, topping the poll in some style with 18,717 hard won votes. It’s not un-noteworthy that one year ago last week, it was desolation rather than jubilation for Mythen at the Wexford count centre, where he lost his county council seat as his party shed half of its elected representatives in what was a bitter blow.
It’s part of what makes Mythen’s comeback story all the more impressive.
A few commentators were heard to remark that ‘there was a wind behind Sinn Féin’ in the general election. But has this wind abated? Has the ‘Sinn Féin Tsunami’ already broken, lapping teasingly at the shore before returning out to sea once more?
While one would hate to see a global pandemic which has claimed the lives of so many reduced to some kind of crude political football, pragmatically speaking this pandemic seems to have done Fine Gael no harm. While they lost the controlling mandate of the people in the last election, public opinion seems to have altered during the current crisis. Leo Varadkar’s detractors are less audible as he looks the polished pro speaking on Covid-19 in between the bumbling of Boris and Trump. While all talk of health in the build-up to the election had been of the cervical check scandal and the National Children’s Hospital overspend, it has now been replaced by talks of how tired Minister for Health Simon Harris looks as he works hard to navigate Covid-19. So, just as quickly as there was a complete turn towards Sinn Féin in February, has the tide turned back again?
‘I think we’re in very strange times for every aspect of society, especially politically,’ Deputy Mythen says, speaking from a newly converted office in his Enniscorthy home.
‘The people still voted for change. At the moment, Covid is dominating the agenda, but before the election we had major issues like the housing crisis, problems in health, issues with education and childcare. I think Sinn Féin are in a very strong position because these issues haven’t gone away and they are still going to be there when things return to normal.’
Some of his detractors dismissed Mythen’s performance in the February election as a ‘protest vote’, something he takes exception to.
‘It’s like they’re burying their heads in the sand,’ he laughs. ‘You can’t neglect your constituents because ultimately, they will dictate government policy. Under the current system, strong public finances has come with the cost of weakening the finances of the average family and that’s what we seek to address.’
The immediate thought when the votes were counted back in February was that Sinn Féin perhaps missed a trick. Although nobody could have foreseen the surge in support, it seems they could have comfortably seen more candidates across the line to take seats. In Wexford, Mythen left a healthy surplus behind him, a majority of which went left. So will they be looking at fielding a second candidate in Wexford next time out?
‘I think (our performance) took everyone by surprise, myself included,’ Deputy Mythen admits.
‘Truthfully, I had my eye on the third or fourth seat. There’s been a major change in attitudes though and I think voters are more educated these days. I suppose every party is working to grow. I think my vote was the highest vote in the country for a non-sitting TD.’
‘What strategy we’ll take next time out will be something to be discussed nationally. Nobody has a crystal ball. We’ll run the numbers but we will be looking to grow. In Wexford, the numbers were good and it bodes well for Sinn Féin going forward.’
In actual fact, according to Deputy Mythen, directly off the back of the last general election Wexford Sinn Féin has bolstered its ranks by 30-40%, the majority of which he says are younger people.
‘We’ll be looking forward to the next election, believe you me,’ he smiles.
While the party put in a strong performance in the last outing, perhaps a button issue which has stood in the way of them taking that step further towards government is Sinn Féin’s complicated history and continual references to the IRA. Most recently, party leader Mary Lou McDonald came under fire
for stating that the actions of the IRA were ‘justified’ in an interview with the Sunday Independent – something which the party faithful resented being the pull-out quote from the piece. An avid history buff, Mythen has his own views of the conflict on the island.
‘If we call a spade a spade here, nobody asks the question: why did the IRA exist?’ he says.
‘They were largely supported by the nationalist people of the North. People down here are often not aware of the extent of the situation. The North was an orange state. People from nationalist communities couldn’t get a job. Gerrymandering meant that they couldn’t get nationalists onto the council, which meant that they got no housing. This situation didn’t fall out of the sky.’
‘Obviously in ‘69 the civil rights marches brought things to a head. Then we had troops on the streets and we know the way they behaved firing on crowds, etc. Incidentally, I’d have empathy for everyone affected by the conflict, on both sides. But what we want to do is move forward. Sinn Féin was one of the main architects of the Good Friday agreement. We’re trying to build for the future and reconcile with the past. We can’t be hypocritical either. Fianna Fáil have their own history too. Yes, we believe in a United Ireland, but we’re looking to the future and to move forward, not back.’
Where the future takes Sinn Féin, only time will tell. Can they retain the groundswell of support they saw on the last outing? With government formation looking towards the alliance of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and The Green Party, Sinn Féin will provide strong opposition. Whenever the next election takes place, should there be a turn away from the government parties, then realistically there’s only one strong alternative left.
‘History unfolds in front of our eyes,’ Mythen says, somewhat philosophically.
‘The nature of politics is we have to see what happens and react to it. In my opinion, it does look like it will be Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens. But as the main opposition, we’ll be in a position to challenge government policies.’
‘It seems they’ll very much implement the same type of economic model, which hasn’t worked. They’ll continue to look after the top 10%, while the inequality between top and bottom grows. I think after Covid-19 we’re going to run into some major problems in relation to homelessness and people at the bottom struggling.’
So, while some commentators believe that the ‘Sinn Féin Tsunami’ was a one-off, never to be repeated, in Wexford the party remain quietly confident. As their numbers grow, not only do they not fear another election, they would seemingly welcome it.
WE’LL RUN THE NUMBERS, BUT WE WILL BE LOOKING TO GROW. WE’LL BE LOOKING FORWARD TO THE NEXT ELECTION, BELIEVE YOU ME.