IT’S A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY
Pedigree of Wallabies is not going to derail Irish ambitions
THIS has been a week marked by one very big presumption: Australia are going to play like the great teams of their past this evening. The Irish coaches say they are expecting this. Their players appear to be anticipating it, too. What form does this threat take? Well, the Australia Ireland fear struts like David Campese, punishes like Michael Lynagh and leads like John Eales.
Whatever kind of force Australia put on the field in Aviva Stadium will have nothing like that kind of threat. If it did, New Zealand would not be champions of the southern hemisphere, for one thing.
It is presumed, though, that Ireland will be confronted by a team full of native Aussie confidence and creativity. There is talent in the ranks of the Wallabies, certainly, but nothing that Ireland should especially fear. The return of Johnny Sexton is a serious addition to the Irish side, and starts for Paul O’Connell and Sean O’Brien are just as significant.
Pairing Luke Marshall with Brian O’Driscoll intrigues, and the form of Marshall earned his selection.
Ireland’s attack did not rip Samoa asunder; it did not need to, with the Irish players good enough to exploit the gaps that opened in the Samoan defence owing to i njury and fatigue.
Joe Schmidt will expect more from his men in attack, then, and t he established r el ati onship between Sexton and Eoin Reddan at scrum half can facilitate this.
Les Kiss smiled a very thin smile this week when asked about the defensive weaknesses the Samoans almost exploited a week ago. This is not an Australian side for the ages, but it does contain its share of talented players who will do plenty of damage if given gaps today.
When Quade Cooper is the face of a revolution, though, be careful about expecting too much in the way of l asting change. Ewen McKenzie has made his belief in Cooper plain through picking him and also through asking him to be vice-captain.
This past week has been broken by hallelujahs every time the talents of Cooper have been opened to discussion. His ability is talked about more often than it is seen, certainly on the Test stage.
When he was a minister and before that messy business about losing our sovereignty, the intelligence of Brian Cowen used to be regularly discussed, too. He was a smart Minister for Health and a very clever Minister for Finance. This intelligence was always spoken about. Then Cowen was made Taoiseach and his intelligence was tested.
Cooper’s footballing talent is always talked about, too, but when tested it has often offered flimsy resistance. The 2011 World Cup provides s o me interesting evidence.
Robbie Deans might not have trusted Cooper during the Lions series but he trusted him in the biggest tournament in the world. In return, he got a series of flaky performances with the odd meek suggestion of excitement.
Time does treacherous things to memory but the enduring impression of Australia matches features Cooper high- stepping behind his own posts, running into tackles or out of space.
When Deans’ absence of faith in Cooper is mentioned, it is worth recalling what happened on the occasions he did put some belief in him. Perhaps he will be the man to tear Ireland asunder tonight, but if Australia are effective through triumphs of the imagination, Will Genia is very likely to be more responsible than Cooper.
Genia had a poor third Test against the Lions but he was terrific in the first one and influential in the second.
Adam Ashley-Cooper is one of the most admirable players in the game. Brian O’Driscoll spoke warmly about Ashley-Cooper during the week and the Australian
“Australia have talent, but it’s nothing to fear”
veteran is often spoken of in terms kept for O’Driscoll.
Israel Folau has the power and attacking nous to pick Ireland apart, too, but he will do most damage when exploiting home errors.
There are quick feet and light fingers in the Australian back line, including Cooper, but Australian opportunity will come in bulkier packaging.
James Horwill was the beneficiary of some extraordinary disciplinary generosity in escaping punishment for a stamp on Alun-Wyn Jones in the second Test last summer. That, though, should not colour too heavily judgements of a player who is very effective. Horwill is no longer captain but he is an instinctive leader, as well as being a second row of the highest order.
He is one of three figures around whom Australian hopes should congregate. The second is Stephen Moore at hooker. Good in the loose, he is a reliable lineout thrower, too. One of his most reliable targets there will be the new captain, Ben Mowen.
If the Lions tour was miserable, the emergence of Mowen was one thing of lasting good for the Wallabies. There was at times something of Julien Bonnaire about his defensive set-piece play, and he is also a principal target for Moore on Australian ball.
Australia’s pack has plenty of power about it, and if McKenzie shared with Joe Schmidt a preference for running rugby, he has nonetheless put together a strong, mobile eight forwards for tonight.
Ireland’s unit stands comparison, but there is a big responsibility on Rory Best, Devin Toner and O’Connell to ensure the lineout purrs, because Mowen in particular will punish Ireland if it does not.
It is presumed Australia can wield a threat worthy of their vintage best today, but evidence for it is at best inconclusive. They are in flux, as England showed.
Ireland should do likewise.