Pumas will fancy chances against battered Ireland as injuries take toll
WORLD Cup quarter-finals are the most difficult, fraught, fascinating and often most exciting matches in the rugby calendar. It is when the world’s top coaches come to the fore and really earn their corn. Reputations can be made and lost, careers and lives changed forever.
The closest England came to ‘disaster’ in 2003 was when an inspired Steve Hansen-coached Wales, a team we had been completely dominating for a couple of years, took us to the cleaners in the first half at Brisbane to lead 10-3 at halftime. It should have been 20-3. Suddenly, we were nearly on the plane home and it took the introduction of Mike Catt and some Jason Robinson magic to help pull that one around.
The crux about quarter-finals is that every team is in a very different place psychologically this week. Ireland will be delighted and relieved to have beaten France, a match they targeted three years ago, but must build again because this in turn is the game that Argentina have been targeting for the same period.
In the Pumas’ minds they were always going to be playing one of the big guns in a World Cup quarter-final.
Scotland will be on a huge high and have nothing to lose against Australia. Whatever happens they are quids in and have established a platform for the future. They are big underdogs which they always thrive on.
Wales had to deal with the claustrophobia of Pool A and the possibility of an early exit. Through wonderfully resourceful playing and coaching they have reached the quarter-finals but can that sense of freedom energise them one more time against South Africa despite their horrendous run of injuries?
New Zealand, Australia and South Africa look at a quarter-final place as an absolute given and even a semi-final spot is considered little more than par. Which means now, this week, is when the pressure kicks in.
New Zealand have been marking time waiting for their competition proper to start and South Africa have been to hell and back but have responded superbly to defeat by Japan. Australia have played the best rugby of the tournament in attack and defence. They have come so far under Michael Cheika, back in Australia the mood is now expectation rather than hope. IRELAND’S win over France is their best of modern times, a staggering effort. They take huge momentum into the Argentina game but it’s going to be a tricky week. They coped wonderfully well with their injuries against France but there is a big difference between replacements coming on and shining in a game like that as opposed to starting a World Cup quarter-final.
Ian Madigan was magnificent in the key position of fly-half but, if Johnny Sexton doesn’t recover, starting against Argentina will be a greater test. In the pack, key influencers Paul O’Connell, Peter O’Mahony and Sean O’Brien are out.
When you have such disruption my rule of thumb was that each day you ‘pick’ the team you currently have available and that is the line-up that does the walk-throughs. Then if one or two players become available again you feed them back into the line-up. As for Argentina, this week will be a big test of nerve. They have impressed all-comers with their allround game but come the big match do they revert to the forward-orientated game that has seen them twice beat Ireland in World Cup matches? THIS is payback time for New Zealand. They will have seen the draw back in 2012 and actively hoped for a Saturday night quarter-final against France at the Millennium Stadium with the roof closed. And that’s what they have got.
There will be much talk about their infamous 2007 quarter-final defeat against the French but Hansen and his team need to shut out all that extra noise. They know what their mission is and I don’t see them being derailed for one minute.
They have been ticking over so far with only the Pumas providing a proper test. Since then they have been playing in fits and starts, just dabbing the accelerator occasionally. France are by no means a bad team and their pack can keep them in the game for a while but Philippe Saint-Andre has continuously struggled to get the best out of them and only Wesley Fofana offers any X factor. There will be much less drama to this game than many hope for. LAST Saturday’s game against Australia was hugely physical, it will take some getting over and the loss of Liam Williams is another big blow.
Mentally, Warren Gatland will get Wales just right, he invariably does, but my worry is that through sheer weight of injuries they have lost a little of their cutting edge behind.
To be deprived of Jonathan Davies and Scott Williams at centre is cruel and we saw the knock-on effect when they laid siege to the Aussie line. A moment of inventive class at centre and they would have been in. South Africa have a dilemma at lock. Everybody assumes the fit-again Victor Matfield will come straight back at lock but the young pairing of Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager have been magnificent and a huge factor in their bounce back. I wouldn’t be in a hurry to disrupt that pairing. AUSTRALIA have demonstrated the best all-round game at this World Cup and to ensure a semi-final place they just need to keep producing the same brand of attacking brilliance and defensive excellence.
Which of course is easier said than done because those matches with England and Wales will have been draining.
Cheika needs to manage his troops well this week and he needs to ensure there is no subconscious exhalation of breath and dipping of intensity against Scotland.
The Scots often play well against Australia and are always at their best in these underdog situations. Vern Cotter’s priority this week will be to address Scotland’s defence.
Yes, Samoa had one of their inspired days at Newcastle last Saturday but Scotland’s defence creaked badly on occasions and Australia will crucify them if that happens again. It’s too late to do any physical or contact work but they need to quietly talk through their systems again.