REAL SO , WHO ARE THE VILLAINS?
Aston Villa are in freefall but bewildered fans aren’t sure where the blame lies...
SUCH is the anger felt by Aston Villa fans witnessing what is surely an embarrassing Premier League exit that there is uncertainty about the exact shape of a protest march proposed for next week’s visit by Crystal Palace.
As one fan put it: ‘The problem is, who are we protesting at? The players, managers, board, scouts and Randy Lerner have all had input into how rubbish we’ve been.’
After a 3-1 loss to Sunderland that seemed to confirm the season’s disastrous outcome, the players copped it en route to the team bus. ‘You’re not fit to wear the shirt,’ they were told.
The atmosphere could hit a new low if Wycombe cause an FA Cup upset today. Either way, at Villa Park against Palace on Tuesday the mood promises to be febrile.
But culpability isn’t just consigned to those wearing the shirts. Serious questions must be asked of the alarming lack of football leadership behind the scenes, as well as Lerner’s seeming uninterest.
They have to answer how Villa, one of only seven ever-present Premier League sides, have eight points from 20 games, and are 11 points away from safety. They still require another win to equal Derby County’s record low total from 2007-08.
Villa have been here before, dancing on the cliff edge, but in this campaign they are plunging at alarming speed. Even with massive parachute payments, the landing in the Championship will not be soft. Wage cuts for players — as well as management — reach as far as 50 per cent in the event of relegation. Players bought from abroad did not plan to play in England’s second tier and an exodus could occur.
Whether vultures will bother circling remains to be seen, with only Jordan Ayew catching the eye. Two managers have failed to find a winning formula and it is 18 games without victory in the league, leading to the conclusion the squad is simply not good enough.
Publicly, club officials — fronted by manager Remi Garde — are refusing to concede defeat but privately plans have been made for the drop, with scouts asked to keep an open mind on targets.
How has it come to this? One observer delivered this damning verdict: ‘Villa are doomed and we all know the problem: Not a single “football” person near the place.’
The reference is to chief executive Tom Fox coming from a commercial background, head of recruitment Paddy Riley progressing through analytics and sporting director Hendrik Almstadt’s expertise in statistics. Football knowledge can be accumulated, but to have three strategic positions filled within 18 months by people acclimatising to their roles looks too great a risk.
Transfer-market experience was imperative in a summer when Christian Benteke and Fabian Delph departed, leaving gaping holes in a team who only narrowly avoided relegation.
But those in the recruitment process were all experiencing their first pre-season window in frontline posts. A fresh approach focusing on youth was commendable, but too hopeful. The core provided by Benteke, Delph and Ron Vlaar wasn’t replaced.
Riley’s forte, having studied football and science at Liverpool John Moores University, has been assessing players using the best technology. He was a video analyst under Martin O’Neill, before becoming scouting co-ordinator at Liverpool in 2012. Having forged a relationship with Lerner previously, Riley, in his mid-30s, was brought back by the American in August 2014 to a senior role that some view as too lofty. ‘He is a nice guy, but is he as well-connected as he needs to be?’ one source pondered.
Soon after, Fox joined from Arsenal, having helped set up their £170million kit deal with Puma. His appointment was preceded by Lerner’s declaration that the club was for sale, and Fox’s commercial savvy was deemed crucial in making Villa appealing. Rather than player acquisitions, that is where his work lies.
In July he brought in Almstadt, a data expert from Arsenal as Villa’s first sporting director, despite resistance from Tim Sherwood. Fox, who worked with the German at Arsenal, spent time convincing Sherwood to accept the appointment.
Almstadt’s role is to assist the manager in administrative ways — medical staffing, for example — but Villa’s player recruitment model leant heavily on his statistical arguments. Players were targeted because of high ‘expected goals’ totals, for instance. Rather than assists, this credits a player for setting up clear chances.
But Arsene Wenger kept Almstadt away from such areas at Arsenal, including the training ground.
Sherwood believed there was an over-reliance on numbers and a civil war kicked off behind the scenes. When Sherwood wanted to sign Rudy Gestede, he was shown a list of alternatives based on statistics. One source with vast transfer experience said: ‘Stats are fine but only to support what you already think, not to be the basis of any arg+ment on signing a player. A scout will analyse things such as off-the-ball movement and communication. Data can’t do that.’
Sherwood agreed to all incomings but felt his options were limited. He wanted Aaron Lennon from Tottenham but Villa walked away when the winger demanded a relegation release clause worth a third of his £6m fee. Instead, Adama Traore, 19, was signed for £7m on £40,000 a week, with Barcelona retaining a buy-back option.
Adama’s direct running and speed excites fans but Sherwood and Garde have expressed doubts about his all-round game. ‘The most expensive development player in history,’ one source quipped.
For an hour at Leicester in September, Villa purred, leading 2-0. But the home side rallied to win and Sherwood never recovered. That is seen by insiders as a pivotal moment. Four points from 10 games saw Fox dismiss the man who had brought such vim in reaching an FA Cup final.
Garde arrived but there has been little of the usual bounce from a new manager. In nine games, he has collected four points and is still awaiting a win. Fox appointed the Frenchman for his success at Lyon in bringing through young players while securing Champions League football. Premier League experience was not essential.
There has been a quiet conviction in Garde — jettisoning Jack Grealish for his indiscretions, omitting Gabby Agbonlahor, a huge dressing-room influence, due to training complaints — but results undermine his approach. He believes Villa need a better squad.
Lerner, who wants to sell up, must decide whether to stick or twist; gamble on a miraculous survival, or cut losses to prepare for the Championship. His friend and non-executive director General Charles C Krulak, a veteran of Vietnam and Iraq, believes marine spirit must be harnessed to fight on. Sadly, General Krulak has no football input. Lerner has still not fulfilled his promise to bring in a new chairman, but Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England and a Villa fan, is a candidate. The players, meanwhile, are unhappy but outwardly defiant. ‘They are convinced they will get out of it,’ said an insider. ‘But they’re in some kind of bubble. What is scary is that hardly any have Championship experience.’
Fox is adamant Garde will remain the right man even in the Championship, but that overlooks the harsh nature of the second tier.
The prospect looms of repeating Fulham’s struggles after they stuck with Felix Magath.
Fox insists work done behind the scenes will ensure Villa do not follow that path and could bounce straight back.
Lerner, who has invested £200m but drastically scaled back funding six years ago, is in daily contact to learn of restructuring to commercial and recruitment departments, which Fox feels puts Villa in a better place off the pitch now than when he arrived. Scouting budgets have been doubled with 15 staff appointed.
But relegation jeopardises all that. Dropping like a stone was not part of the plan. This proud club’s supporters are poised to make their feelings known.
There’s not one football person near the place Privately, plans are being made for the drop