A bolt from the blue has transformed everything

HAS there ever been five hours to so comprehensively change the political landscape of not just one country but the whole of Europe? At just past midnight on Thursday, I turned off the TV and went to bed. British MEP Nigel Farage had all but conceded defeat. The polls were saying it would be tight but that Bremain would sneak it.

Like most political pundits, I had been pretty confident that the UK would be staying in Europe and that for the next 20 to 30 years, they would continue to snarl at the EU, but would still put up with her diktats.

And as for the skyline – well if not exactly blue, I couldn’t see a single storm-cloud on the horizon. Not even a whiff of the hurricane that was about to blow through Europe.

To me, to most other people in Scotland, even the ones who voted Leave, it seemed like we would be settling for another three years of ‘Steady as she goes’.

British Prime Minister David Cameron would have succeeded in his hair-raising little gamble, the stocks and shares would tick along nicely, and the Tory right wing would, for a short time, be firmly put back in their box. I wake up five hours later to find that all hell had broken loose – that the world as we know it had changed forever. (Though, duly chastened, I should perhaps say it’s probably changed for ever. There’s no telling what sort of Machiavellian deals are going to be done over the next three months – why, there is even talk of another referendum.)

ICAN’T remember feeling so utterly confounded by a political event from the last 40 years. All of Friday, there was this sort of slack-jawed feeling as you just shook your head and thought: ‘What on earth is going to happen next?’

Well the truth is that no-one has any idea what’s going to happen next – least of all the Leave campaigners.

It has a similar feel to two middleaged parents going off for the weekend as they leave their teenage kids at home. The parents know that the teenage kids are going to have a party, but that’s all right, because the kids have had parties before – might be a few stains on the carpet and a couple of smashed glasses, but no big deal. The parents arrive back home to find their house is burning merrily to the ground.

And the parents yell: ‘What the hell have you done?’

And as for the teenage kids: they also are quite shocked at what has happened. They have no idea what to do next – but they do want the parents to stay in charge to sort the whole damn mess out.

But as it is – the lead parent in this drama, David Cameron, has ignored the pleas of the Brexiteers and fallen on his sword. He’s gone! Just like that! He’s history – and my guess is that his political legacy has gone up in smoke too.

At the moment in the UK, there is a lot of swirling anger. It feels like a lightning cloud which is brewing up the most unholy hail of thunderbolts.

You could see a glimpse of this outrage when Boris Johnson walked out of his North London home.

We had been expecting him to make a speech. Instead he was greeted by a cacophony of boos; I think he’ll be hearing a lot more boos over the next few months.

Not that anything much is going to surprise me now after the events of Friday morning – but nevertheless, I would be mildly amazed if Boris became prime minister. As politician Michael Heseltine found when he knifed Margaret Thatcher in the back, he who wields the dagger doesn’t get the crown.

Although Cameron did the decent thing and resigned yesterday, I don’t think history will look on him very favourably. Some say the British prime minister played this spectacular piece of political brinkmanship merely to see off the right-wing schemers in his own party.

There’s a feeling now that there were many better ways for Mr Cameron to deal with these malcontents – that he should never have even have countenanced a Brexit referendum.

Referendums are fraught – not least that you can never be certain of getting the result you want.

When Mr Cameron held the Scottish referendum two years ago, he thought he’d lance the Scottish independence boil. Yet he wins the referendum and the Scots Nats have never been noisier.

The other problem with referendums is that though it may only be a two-horse race, the underdog gets a new legitimacy and a new voice.

Because the news outlets had to be impartial, the Brexiteers were getting as much air time as the Remain team.

And they had a fantastic message too, as they spelled out how wonderful life was going to be outside Europe – meanwhile branding Remain as ‘Project Fear’.

AS the Brexit result sinks in, it is difficult to hazard at all the consequences, but my guess is there will be innumerable knock-on effects. In Scotland, two out of three Scots voted to stay in Europe; within hours of the Brexit vote, the Scots Nats were already sabrerattling for a second Scottish independence referendum. Ditto in Northern Ireland – 56% Remain – where Sinn Féin is now calling for a referendum on a united Ireland.

UK’s Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn may well be ousted, likewise for the chancellor George Osborne. The super-bubble in the London housing market may be about to be pricked.

As for the EU, the removal of the UK’s economic buttress may bring about the complete collapse of Europe’s economy.

Big talk of another massive recession – and waiting in the wings is Russia’s Vladimir Putin, unable to believe his luck that his most outspoken opponents have committed hara-kiri.

Mind you, there is one final scenario that might perhaps come about. The new prime minister Theresa May uses the referendum to chisel out a fantastic new deal with the European Union, the country’s parliament cancels Brexit, and in six months’ time we awaken from the nightmare to find that all is as it once was. Perhaps.