WILL WE BE NEXT TO QUIT?
Such is Ireland’s closeness to Britain, our future in the EU will now have to be considered – and it’s far from certain voters here will choose to stay
WE may be shocked but we should not be surprised. It was coming, even if many politicians and businesspeople in this country were trying to wish the prospect away, or couldn’t believe that Britain would be mad enough, even bad enough, to vote itself out of the European Union, to be the 2016 disciples of Ourselves Alone.
In making a Brexit documentary for TV3 – broadcast last week – I conducted dozens of interviews, here and in Britain, and came to the conclusion that yesterday’s referendum outcome was more likely than not and that we, in Ireland, were going to have to ready ourselves for an uncertain, and very possibly negative, future, both economically and socially.
I also raised the possibility that we, too, as a consequence of the British going, would have to consider our own future in the EU, albeit not until we see the terms of their departure.
There are those who tell us that would constitute a form of economic suicide, just as there are those to whom the idea of seemingly copying the British by voting for an exit would be anathema.
But such is our closeness to Britain, in geographic, cultural and economic terms, that such an eventuality cannot be discounted – and the time will come when it most certainly is going to have to be discussed, rationally and not emotionally.
A Remain outcome in Ireland is by no means certain either, as things stand.
Opinion polls in Britain – for what they’re worth – suggested many Irish people living in the UK were in favour of leaving the EU, notwithstanding the efforts of our Taoiseach to campaign and interventions from the likes of Sir Bob Geldof.
In this newspaper last Tuesday week I wrote that ‘if I was Irish living in Britain – and thinking of what is needed in the country in which I have come to live – I would consider seriously giving my vote to the Leave side’.
It wasn’t because of the immigration issue; that would have been hypocritical given the Irish history of being discriminated against as they sought jobs in Britain or entered the country. The xenophobia and racism of many of those advocating on the Leave side was disgusting – and unfortunately, that, rather than economic analysis, seems to have persuaded some voters, possibly in sufficient number to have tipped the scales.
My main concerns, had I been a voter, would have been economic and administrative. There were good grounds for the British to worry that the EU is economically banjaxed because of its adherence to the euro. Linked to that is a fear that the logical support for the currency is based on a range of centralised EU political power-taking that would further reduce the power of individual national governments.
HAVING kept their own currency – sterling – the British had good reason to fear that decisions would be made at EU level that would be of benefit to the single currency and possibly at its expense. It might have been possible to be entertained somewhat by the conduct of this referendum campaign if the outcome wasn’t going to have such major repercussions for us.
Like many of you, I imagine, I read the newspapers and watched the British television debates. I also attended events and press conferences in London.
I saw the now-departing British Prime Minister David Cameron at a special invite-only event at the City Hall; he was eloquent and seemingly in control, but even though he was on his own, he spent his whole time on the defensive, combating what he said (often correctly) were the myths being peddled by the Leave side about jobs, immigration and freedom of movement.
Unfortunately, I didn’t find him convincing and could only wonder how he would appeal to anyone other than those already
committed to voting Remain.
I went to a debate at Chatham House and saw a leading Tory, Chris Grayling, and a suspended UKIP spokeswoman, Suzanne Evans (she has had a row with her leader Nigel Farage), on the Leave side, trounce Labour MP Hilary Benn and a Green Party MP who was so wishy-washy that I couldn’t remember her name without looking it up (it is Caroline Lucas).
It was a small sample, admittedly, but added to what was going on in the public domain it created an impression that the Leave side was prepared to fight harder – and dirtier – to get what it wanted.
The Remain side was constantly responding, and when it did, the Leave side, in a somewhat Orwellian twist, kept shouting ‘Project Fear’ as if the government were the destructive naysayers and they were the positive, constructive ones. As it turns out, the Leave campaign was fuelled by lies, and not just on immigration; for example, Farage admitted yesterday that an increased budget for the National Health Service as a result of not making financial contributions to the EU was not going to happen.
It was instructive as to the trend in modern day politics, the advantage populism has over intellectual argument, the deliberate fraying of socalled elites, often by those who are rooted in the elites themselves, while falsely portraying themselves as the champions of so-called ordinary people.
The figurehead of the Leave campaign, Boris Johnson, has more in common with multi-millionaire real estate heir Donald Trump than dramatic hair styles. That both could hold power in the respective countries at the start of 2017 almost beggars belief.
That is not to dismiss the possibility that all of this may turn out to be better for Britain in the long run, once markets calm and sterling recovers – although this may take time – because anyone who says they know what will happen is only spoofing.
However, the information that is available to us suggests that whatever about Britain – and it may well suffer a serious recession and loss of investment, especially if the EU retaliates by not offering a favourable trade deal – this result is unlikely to be in Ireland’s best interests.
People living north of the border should be very worried indeed. Northern Ireland is an enormous net beneficiary of EU financial aid, something that must have influenced the overwhelming majority in favour of Remain by those who voted.
The assumption being made by the likes of the Democratic Unionist Party, that the British Exchequer, which already subvents the region to a ridiculous degree, would step in and replace the absent funds, may be somewhat heroic.
And their dismissal of the idea that a hard border would be imposed is also somewhat naive (although you suspect that some, privately, would be happy if it were).
Just because we’ve had a common travel area between Ireland and Britain for nearly a century does not mean it will continue automatically – not when the EU would demand a hard border with the UK.
That could only be avoided if Britain joins EU-lite, as the Norwegians have as quasi-associate members. It is impossible to see how that could happen in the circumstances.
In many respects the selfish economic concerns of most of those living in the Republic pale by comparison with the likely impact of the restoration of border controls on those living in the border area. It is the border situation that could dictate that a Brexit may eventually force an Irish departure from the EU too.
OF course, our membership of the euro may imprison us within the EU, even after the British departure. Even if we were to decide that our relationship with Britain is more important to us in practical terms than our connection to continental Europe, the adverse costs of exiting the euro would probably prevent us from leaving the EU.
However, there is no guarantee that a vote to stay would happen in Ireland either, especially given our previous referendum history, which is why our establishment is unlikely to take the risk of even starting the discussion.
The idea of debate is anathema to many, for different reasons. There are many in this country who are utterly committed to the idea of the European Union and who believe it has brought, and will bring, Ireland enormous benefits that far outweigh any negatives.
But if we stay in the EU after Britain leaves we might find it more difficult to travel to Britain or to get work there – possibly being required as EU citizens to have visas to do so, and needing the guarantee of a job before being allowed to travel, as a new requirement.
The estimated €1billion in trade between the countries each week could be curtailed if trade quotas are imposed. Ireland will not be allowed by the EU to do an individual deal with Britain (and Northern Ireland).
Jobs could be lost if foreign investment decides to go to cheaper Britain instead of to us.
Irish companies earning profits in sterling could find them worth a lot less to repatriate. Our exporters will lose profitability because of the currency difference and local producers will be swamped by cheaper British imports.
In such circumstances, we may have to ask if our links to Britain are more valuable to maintain than our continued membership of the European Union.
You may find that shocking, but do not be surprised if that question is asked of you eventually.