THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF A MESSY DIVORCE

AS the news of the referendum result started to filter through on Friday morning, a gloomy mood darkened on Brussels, the home of the European project.

It was immediately clear that the result would have a massive impact on how the EU operates. Being truthful, nobody knows the full impact of all of this for Britain, Ireland and the EU. Don’t believe anyone who says that they fully know or understand the long-term repercussions that will follow Brexit. Only time will tell.

The only precedent that exists for this situation is Greenland, which voted to leave in 1982. This was when the semi-independent state had a population of 56,000, making its departure much less significant than that of any existing member states.

First things first. EU leaders will sit down together next week for a special EU summit with Brexit as the only topic for discussion. This will obviously be a historic summit, but the remaining 27 member states will need to be constructive and have a clear plan as to what to do next.

David Cameron is expected to notify EU leaders of Britain’s intention to leave, but he has said it will be up to his successor to launch the procedure of invoking Article 50 of the EU Treaties – the only formal way of triggering an exit from the EU.

The exit negotiations may not take place for some months and as Enda Kenny said yesterday we must take this breathing space and use it wisely. This is a time for cool heads.

We have seen pandemonium in the markets on Friday which needs to be calmed. EU leaders have a responsibility to ease the fears of investors with clear messages.

Once Article 50 is triggered, it provides for a two-year timeframe for an exit – the shortest possible timeframe to leave. But how long will the negotiations take? A quick and smooth exit is in everyone’s interest. Prolonging this makes no sense.

But in an unwelcome twist, Brexiteers do not want to invoke Article 50 and would prefer to negotiate informally. They believe that Article 50 gives Britain a weak hand in exit negotiations. Under this article Britain’s departure has to be agreed by all of the other 27 member states.

As this is the only way of securing a proper exit, Cameron’s successor needs to get on board with this procedure and needs to start negotiating on assuming No 10.

Whatever the case, this will be a messy divorce where two sides have their own self-interests at heart.

The 27 member states will have different views on how to conduct the exit process.

The likelihood is that those member states that have strong relations with the EU, including Ireland, will want a quick and orderly exit.

On the other hand, some of the Mediterranean countries like Italy and France will probably take a more hostile approach and will not want to allow for an easy exit.

Essentially, though, the leadership must come from Germany. Angela Merkel will have to play a leadership role to all of this.

But we must remember that there will be elections in France and Germany next year, not to mention an election in Spain this Sunday. AntiEU parties are on the rise in each of these countries.

The political atmosphere has been tense throughout Europe and Brexit is almost certain to polarise voters further.

There will be countless questions arising from this referendum from an EU perspective. Will there be similar referendums in other member states? What happens to the euro? What happens to the European Union’s enlargement process? These are all questions that need to be answered in the coming weeks.

While the European Council summit is taking place next week, the European Parliament will also meet in a formal plenary session, which was called by EU Parliament President Martin Schulz.

This will be the first public EU debate on the issue where we will see Members of the European Parliament and the European Commission debating the next steps for the European Union.

We should remember that there are 73 MEPs from the UK. They will remain as MEPs as long as Britain remains in the EU but this means that after that, they are gone and no MEP will represent the UK in the European Parliament. And this means we will become a European Union of 27. Obviously, people will now ask, legitimately, should we follow the British – given we could only join the EU in 1973, when they did.

It’s an honest question and politicians should not be afraid to publicly discuss it.

MY view is that of course we should stay. But we do need to continue to assess the magnitude of a Brexit on Ireland and the Irish economy. We need to understand how our standing in the EU will change without Britain at the table.

And crucially, we need to renegotiate our own relationship with the EU and with Britain.

This requires a proper public debate on what exactly we need from this process given the connection between Britain and Ireland.

We also need to establish quickly what exactly are the red line issues for Ireland.

This is an unprecedented challenge faced by our government but with a calm attitude and a willingness to work with Britain and our EU partners, we can make this process much easier for the future of Ireland.

But the question has to be asked in Ireland in a very public way – should we leave with the UK? I believe, for our future, we are better off in the EU and better off in the euro. But let nobody be afraid of the debate that will and should follow Brexit.