MAKING LINEOUTS COUNT IS KEY TO BEATING WALES
Devin Toner hasn’t been quite as busy as last term
JOE SCHMIDT’S Ireland will be jumping with confidence in Cardiff on both sides of the throw, given their set-piece performances in February.
Just two of 45 lineouts were lost last month, both in the opening game at Scotland with skipper Rory Best on the oche. This accuracy has them ranked as the second best own-ball lineout in the 2017 tournament, their 95.5 per cent success rate only bettered by defending champions England, whose 33 from 34 figure equals 97 per cent.
Wales, Ireland’s opponents tomorrow night, haven’t been far wide of the mark either, making good 35 of 37 throws for a 94.5 per cent success rate. However, don’t be surprised if the work of Irish assistant Simon Easterby helps Schmidt’s pack cause disruption on the opposition throw.
Five of the 34 throws last month went astray against the Irish, a 14.7 per cent nuisance value that is again only second best to England’s 16.6 per cent interference with six of their opponents’ 36 throws not going to plan.
Contrast that aerial competitiveness to how Wales fared, just two of their oppositions’ 30 throws messed up (6.6 per cent), a figure only marginally better than France’s 2/48 (4.1 per cent) and Italy’s terrible 0/31.
This Welsh figure suggests a lack of menace on opposition ball, but that didn’t tally with Easterby’s assessment that Friday’s hosts are a threat to the Best throw.
‘Italy and France didn’t compete as much and we expect Wales to be pretty competitive there,’ he said.
Easterby also wasn’t taken in by Ireland’s own ball accuracy, claiming: ‘We might have won 22 (against France), but the quality of those 22 weren’t 22 good ones.’
Thirty-four throws in a match, as happened at Lansdowne Road, is no record-threatening Test figure, the highest ever reputedly being the 114 lineouts when New Zealand hosted South Africa in 1921. Yet, it must be recognised that Ireland conjuring a 100 per cent rate off 22 throws the last day was no mean feat. That unblemished return followed a nine from nine statistic in Italy.
In trying to win the championship off the back of an opening day defeat, the improved lineout efficiency is encouraging.
Not since the Italians were in Dublin 11 months and 10 games earlier had the Irish set-piece emerged from an 80-minute blowout without suffering a messed-up throw.
In terms of targets, their caller Devin Toner hasn’t quite been as busy as last term. When Ireland only won 41 of 49 throws (83.6 per cent) in the 2016 championship, the tournament’s tallest player gathered 22 of the catches (56.6 per cent).
This term the engine room colossus has only collected 15 of 43 throws (32.5 per cent) his team have won, their strategy being more varied as Jamie Heaslip has collected seven, CJ Stander six and Donnacha Ryan five. The replacement duo Iain Henderson and Peter O’Mahony were of great assistance when they came on in the second half 12 days ago, jumping for five catches between them.
While Ireland’s preference in catching lineout ball is to maul, doing so for instance on 13 occasions against the French, the Welsh have been leaning towards playing it fast off the top while also tweaking their own receiver strategy. When they drew 16-16 with Ireland in Dublin 13 months ago, they rarely strayed from throwing to their second rows, with Alun Wyn Jones and Luke Charteris accounting for seven of eight catches. However, last month they successfully deployed their backrows far more frequently, Sam Warburton making 11 and Justin Tipuric 13 of their 35 catches, leaving just two fetches for lineout caller Jake Ball and seven for Jones, the supposed Welsh equivalent of Toner. ‘It might be a little bit unusual (to throw so much to back-rows) but they are both pretty able and I suppose if a side believes their locks have in the past been more dominant they might think those guys might be defended more heavily,’ reasoned Easterby about the tactical switch that has seen the majority of darts go the direction of Warburton and Tipuric.
‘(Taulupe) Faletau, when available, has won a lot of ball for them so it’s not something they haven’t done in the past, but it has been highlighted over the last few games and in the autumn as well.’
Faletau — the Welsh target for 10 throws in last year’s championship where they emerged with a 100 per cent return in three of their five Six Nations matches — and Charteris will both try to add lineout ballast from the bench tomorrow in a set-piece guessing game that is more important than you might imagine.
Of the seven tries Wales conceded in last year’s championship, six stemmed from possession at the opposition lineout, suggesting this is one prime way for Ireland to attack them and ensure this title race does go to the wire next weekend.