WIN IN WALES AND SET UP TITLE
Stopping home side momentum is key to victory says Schmidt
NOW comes the hard part for Joe Schmidt’s Ireland, who need to put their recovery from that opening-day surprise in Scotland to best use by beating Wales and England in the next nine days.
If they do so, they will win a third championship for the Kiwi coach in his fourth season in charge.
Easier said than done. The Welsh and English have provided the New Zealander with his biggest Six Nations headaches, each of those nations beaten just once in three attempts.
That’s a record at odds with Ireland’s results against their other rivals, beating Italy in all four meetings under Schmidt and recording three-from-four records against the Scots and French.
Identifying a blueprint to beat the Welsh will be taxing, though. When Warren Gatland’s side pitched up in Dublin in February 2014 as defending champions, they were convinced that their allegedly superior fitness would run the legs off Ireland.
That wasn’t what transpired, Schmidt’s more energetic charges leaving their visitors panting to register a comfortable 23-point success that was pivotal in helping them succeed the Welsh as champions with a +10 points edge over England.
Since then, however, the Welsh have been a thorn in Schmidt’s side. Their fast 12-point start was crucial in the result that extinguished 2015 Irish hopes of a possible Grand Slam.
Then, a year ago, Ireland getting off to a 13-point Lansdowne Road flyer wasn’t enough to put them out of reach, Johnny Sexton instead having to rescue a 16-16 draw with a late penalty.
What gives? ‘Wales are very dogmatic,’ explained Schmidt yesterday after unveiling the same starting XV that defeated France last Saturday week.
‘They are very hard to beat back and beat down. They are always going to come back at you so even if you get that good start, as we did last year, you have got to be able to keep playing at them, keep them under pressure.
‘They tend to be very big. They may not be the biggest team in world rugby like they were in the last World Cup because a couple of those guys aren’t playing, but put a guy like Jake Ball into their second row with Alun Wyn Jones and then have guys like Sam Warburton and Ross Moriarty, who are big men, they tend to be advantage line hungry.
‘They get over that gain line and as soon as they are over that line and as combative as they are, it’s very hard to stop their momentum.
‘You have got to keep that pressure on them and not allow them to get into a flow.
‘How do you do that? By trying to deny them the quick ball, deny them the easy access points that they can launch themselves.
‘Last year, we were in front 13-0 at one stage and Jon Davies does an incredibly good left-foot grubber down the left-hand touch, they tackle us into our end goal and from a five-metre scrum Toby Faletau scores… they are very, very strong off the base of the scrum so they got a great shot at us and they don’t need too many good shots.’
Grave post-mortems have been penned and voiced about Wales on foot of the loss to Scotland, just their second time in seven years to lose two Six Nations matches on the bounce. It has left Welsh supporters fearing their worst championship finish since they wound up in fifth a decade ago, but Schmidt isn’t taken in by the pessimism. Instead he suggests their 16-point loss in Scotland wasn’t a fully true reflection of the exchanges.
‘They had enough of that game — and they know they had enough of that game — to change the result despite the breadth on the scoreboard,’ he cautioned, further dismissing suggesting that they have become somewhat predictable under caretaker boss Rob Howley.
‘They are good and smart players. I don’t think you can ever say Dan Biggar is predictable. He has got such a bag of tricks… it’s very hard to say they are predictable because we don’t see them like that,’ he continued, adding that he used to work with their attack coach Alex King at Clermont.
‘He’s pretty innovative and we expect the unexpected on Friday evening. At the same time, what we will expect is a real physical challenge, real front-foot ability to play. That is what they are famous for and we have to take that away from them.
‘There is something about playing at home. I’ve no doubt for Wales, particularly on the back of having lost their last two games and having lost at home to England, that they will be highly motivated. We have got to try and match that level of motivation.’
‘Dan Biggar has got such a bag of tricks’