Is O’Neill brave enough to take Dubs on?
CIAN O’NEILL and Jim Gavin are mulling over two very contrasting decisions ahead of Sunday’s Leinster final.
Kildare manager O’Neill has admitted that he is likely to opt for a more defensive set-up against the reigning All-Ireland champions, despite seeing his side rack up 1-21 and 2-16 during comfortable wins over Laois and Meath respectively on their path to the decider.
For Gavin, the dilemma is simply which team to play ahead of the sterner challenges that await further down the line.
Does he keep Kevin McManamon on the bench after he came in and bagged 1-1 in the 31-point demolition of Westmeath?
Maybe he could give Eoghan O’Gara a rare start in order to add more aerial threat after his impressive fielding before finding the net in that same game?
Whatever decision he comes to, Gavin’s team selection is not likely to be the winning or losing of this game and will only serve to dictate how comfortably Dublin win a record seventh successive Leinster title in what has become a redundant provincial Championship.
While Kildare have shown plenty of promise in their two opening Leinster Championship victories, Dublin have still outscored them by 11 points without ever really putting the foot down against a stubborn Carlow and disappointingly tame Westmeath.
There is no escaping the fact that, despite any resurgence in Kildare football under the guidance of the impressive O’Neill, Dublin remain streets ahead of the pack in Leinster — and the numbers suggest that, if anything, that gap is widening.
In the last two Championship meetings between these sides (2015 and 2013), Gavin’s men have racked up a score of 9-34 to Kildare’s 1-23.
Kildare haven’t beaten their neighbours in Championship football since a Leinster final replay in 2000, and the last time the Lilywhites finished within touching distance of Dublin was the 2011 Leinster semi-final, Bernard Brogan nailing a controversial late free to secure a one-point win just months before Stephen Cluxton’s heroics against Kerry would bring Sam Maguire back to the capital for the first time in 16 years.
In the time since that 2011 breakthrough, it hasn’t been pretty for Dublin’s Leinster rivals in the provincial championship.
For Kildare, the margin of defeat jumped from 16 points to 19 between 2013 and 2015. In their four meetings with once fierce rivals Meath since 2011, Dublin’s winning cushion has gone from just three points against Seamus McEnaney’s side in the 2012 Leinster final, to seven (2013), 16 (2014) and then 10 points (2016) during Mick O’Dowd’s tenure.
Westmeath, who at one stage established themselves as the most likely challengers in Leinster during Dublin’s recent period of dominance, have fallen short by 16 (2013), 12 (2015), 15 (2016) and 31 points (2017) in their four clashes over that time.
It’s a similar story for Wexford, who lost by four points in 2012 before suffering a humiliating 16-point hammering in 2014.
Westmeath at least looked to buck that trend this year, opting for a less defensive approach after shipping heavy defeats despite setting up to try and contain Dublin on their previous encounters, but the result saw Tom Cribbin’s men carved up and beaten out the gate by half-time, with the eventual 31-point cushion the largest recorded under Gavin’s glittering tenure.
After showing steady signs of progress under O’Neill, Kildare will be wary of succumbing to a similar fate in their first Leinster final appearance since 2009, so a more defensive approach remains the likely option in GAA headquarters this weekend.
Of course, the problem is that if Kildare fail to cause an upset — or at the very least put up a fight — by using a defensive set-up, O’Neill leaves himself open to criticism for steering away from the style of play that has served his side so well up to this point.
Still, considering the numbers Dublin have consistently registered in Leinster over the last number of years, only the bravest of managers would decide to roll the dice.
Dublin are still streets ahead in Leinster