DERMOT AHERN ON LEO’S CALL
IHAVE to hand it to Leo Varadkar. He cannot be accused of not being upfront about issues. Last week, he publicly upped the ante in regard to the UK’s attitude to Brexit. The Taoiseach, in effect, made it clear to the UK that, as far as his government is concerned, Brexit is a problem of Britain’s own making and that they need not expect others to come up with solutions.
While some will find fault with the fact that he said this very openly, rather than at least waiting until after his meeting this week with Arlene Foster, I feel he was well within his rights to articulate his government’s views. He was much more temperate in his speech at Queen’s University in Belfast, though no-one should be under any illusion.
The Irish Government is obviously putting down a marker that we cannot be taken for granted. Time is moving on and very little progress seems to have been made at the initial meetings between the UK government and the EU negotiators. Michel Barnier, the lead negotiator for the EU, has suggested that meetings be held more often in order to quicken the pace of negotiations. It is in nobody’s interest, especially for this island, that matters be left to be agreed until the 11th hour.
Clearly, Mr Varadkar’s statements, and other soundings coming from Government, are born out of a sense of frustration on their part, given the clear divisions among the UK cabinet ministers as to how to move forward. John Bruton, a former taoiseach and a widely regarded expert on these matters, correctly referred to the ‘platitudes’ coming from Westminster and their allies, the DUP. Mr Varadkar & Co. have been accused of reverting to megaphone diplomacy. And yet, they have to deal with a Tory party which is, to put it mildly, all over the place regarding Brexit.
WHEN Fine Gael used its senator, Neale Richmond, who excellently chaired the Seanad committee on the issue of Brexit, to put out a message that Brexit was a British policy, not an Irish one, the DUP responded through their MP Jeffrey Donaldson in a typically condescending fashion: That Senator Richmond was ‘low level’, and that they would only respond if Fine Gael put up ‘somebody with credibility’.
Quite clearly, the DUP have chosen not to listen to the change in emphasis coming from Dublin.
Previously Irish Government sources, after the Tories and the DUP signed their deal in Westminster, were wide of the mark, as I predicted, when they suggested that the DUP would be allies in ensuring a soft border. In my view, it was wishful thinking on their part.
So, clearly, the ramping up of the political temperature is more than just the summer silly season. With Mr Varadkar meeting Mrs Foster in the North this week, I’d expect that this is the start of much more tough talking.
The Brexiteers cannot have it both ways. All the talk about ‘seamless borders’ is a nonsense, if they still adhere to their position that Brexit means a full pull-out from the EU. Fudging around the issue with talk of transitional arrangements will only put off the evil day. Ultimately, a full break from the EU single market, the customs union and the relevant institutions by the UK, if they are to be true to their referendum result, will have to take place. Anything less will cause a huge political crisis in the UK.
Philip Hammond, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, who clearly sees the massive economic downsides for his country in a full Brexit, this week, looked like he was clutching at straws when he suggested that such transitional arrangements would get the UK past the next general election there in 2022. I wondered, when I heard this, is he hoping for a ‘regime change’, of his own government, so as to allow for a rerun of the referendum?
Given the mixed messages coming from Whitehall, it intrigues me how relatively silent big business in the UK has been for the last while.
Although the initial economic indicators showed a reasonably benign scenario for the UK economy post Brexit, more recent figures must be a cause of worry for most business leaders there.
Coming back to Brexit’s effects on Ireland, I believe the best solution for Ireland, as a whole in this morass, if Brexit is to be implemented is that the UK continues to remain in the EU customs union. Technological solutions or moving the economic border to the Irish Sea have been proposed as viable options. Obviously, the latter suggestion, while it has merit, would not be a runner for the DUP and Theresa May’s Conservative and Unionist party. Using technology will have some benefits for the transportation of bulk goods, but will have little impact on the daily crossing of thousands of citizens, leading to negative effects on the economic life of border communities.
Mr Bruton yet again put it very well this week when he said that the issue was not where the economic border was but that once the ‘English’ (as he called them) decided to leave the customs union it followed that there would be a necessity for tariffs and excessive and costly bureaucracy between the South and the UK and Northern Ireland.
HE, quite rightly, pointed out that a lot of small businesses on either side might opt out of doing this type of crossborder business, because of the huge hassle involved. However, not all companies would have the option of dealing elsewhere. Equally, the transiting of goods over the UK could be extremely problematic.
Another aspect which the DUP especially should be challenged on is the issue of cross-border smuggling. It has always correctly been insistent in reducing any avenues for profiteering made possible by the presence of the border. How now can it reconcile that position with its stated aim of a total Brexit?
As I’ve said before, instead of ‘no going back to the borders of the past’, as we have heard Mrs May say many times, I predict that if the UK and Northern Ireland fully exit the customs union we will go back to an era of ‘smuggling of the past’.
Wherever there is an economic border, there will always be someone ready to take advantage of differences in prices. The fact that the South and the North both up to now have been in the EU, has lessened the possibilities for racketeering. After Brexit all that could change back for the worst.