How Brexit will devastate rural Ireland

IT’S not only border counties that will be most exposed to the economic effects of a hard Brexit, after new research reveals it will have a devastating effect on counties such as Kerry and Longford.

One in every five workers in these counties employed in sectors such as agri-food and tourism are most vulnerable to the UK’s exit from the European Union, a stark report has revealed.

The research by business group Ibec finds average farm incomes overall could be slashed by more than 6% due to less demand if exports to the UK were to fall. Counties with highest exposure to a potential hard Brexit are Cavan (28%), Monaghan (27%), Kerry (22%) and Longford (21%), with more than 20% of workers in these counties employed in exposed sectors.

The sectors include agri-food and beverages, accommodation and tourism services, air and freight transport and traditional manufacturing.

Ibec’s Head of Tax and Fiscal Policy Gerard Brady, said: ‘Our analysis shows around 243,000 workers, or 13.2% of the employed population, work in the most Brexit-exposed sectors. [But] we are facing these challenges from a position of strength due to the strong substance behind our business model.’

Exposure to a potential hard Brexit is lowest, as expected, in urban areas. The least exposed counties include Cork and Galway cities along with the four Dublin local authorities and surrounding counties.

A recent report by InterTradeIreland and the ESRI estimated that in a worst case scenario (with WTO tariffs, non-tariff barriers and 10% rise in sterling/euro), exports of food and beverage manufacturing to the UK could fall by 45%, or €2.1billion. Food/beverage manufacturing turnover is €27billion, of which €4.6billion is from UK exports.