Football’s wise men call final
One thing Dublin must do to win? They have to match Mayo’s physicality on and off the ball. This is going to a tough, torrid affair and Dublin will have to man-up to and match that aggression. One thing Mayo must do to win? They simply have to stop Dublin’s running game. It is true that Dublin can mix it up, but they remain primarily a running team and Mayo, apart from having bodies back, will have to try and thwart the Dublin game at source. Key-head-to-head: Lee Keegan (Mayo) v Con O’Callaghan (Dublin) — O Callaghan has been a sensation this summer but this is the ultimate step-up against one of the best and most ruthless defenders in the game. Who will win? Dublin — This is by no means as clear-cut as so many are making out. Mayo will not back away from the champions and they are fuelled by a strong sense of belief but they will come up a couple of points shy again. A tenner on man-of-the-match? James McCarthy (Dublin) — I really think he is one of the most under-appreciated players in the game but one of these days he will get that recognition and this might be as good a day as any. One thing Dublin must do to win? Be ready. They have not faced a competitive test all year but they are going to face some serious heat from a Mayo team who have never backed away from them. One thing Mayo must do to win: They come into this final with real momentum on the back of three top performances in Croke Park, but they will have to raise it even higher if they are going to be able to sustain the periods of dominance that they will need to gain a foothold in the game. Key-head-to-head: Colm Boyle (Mayo) v Con O’Callaghan (Dublin) — O’Callaghan has been the star turn this summer but Mayo have hard-nosed defenders that will present him with a whole different examination. And Mayo may opt for Boyle to ensure Lee Keegan has a more pronounced attacking role. Who will win? Dublin — The champions have reached a stage where the old ‘on the day’ vagaries of form which always gave underdogs a chance no longer exist. They always deliver a sustained level of performance and this should be no different. Dublin by three. A tenner on man of the match: Dean Rock (Dublin) — This is likely to be a fractious and physical affair and it could come down to which team exploits to the maximum their chances from dead balls. Right now, there is no-one quite on Rock’s level on that front. One thing Dublin must do to win? They must control the middle third and if they manage that they will stop the attacking surge from the Mayo half-back line which remains a core element of their attacking game-plan. One thing Mayo must do to win? They have no option but to try and attack Stephen Cluxton’s kick-outs, because if they leave possession with Dublin they will die by a thousand cuts. And they will also have to find a way to protect possession from their own restarts. Key-head-to-head? Lee Keegan (Mayo) v Ciaran Kilkenny (Dublin) —Kilkenny is the most influential player on the Dublin team and Mayo’s can’t afford to let him pull the strings. It is a matchup that would suit Keegan as it would bring him into parts of the field that could hurt Dublin. Who will win? Dublin — if it’s a dry day, I would fear for Mayo because I believe the champions are primed for this game in a way that they were not for last year’s final. If it is wet, it will be closer but you will still get the same result. A tenner on man-of-the-match? Ciaran Kilkenny (Dublin) — If you run your finger through most of Dublin’s victories, you will find more often than not that he is the common denominator and he can be so again. One thing that Dublin must do to win? They have to keep playing the way they have. That is never as easy as it sounds, especially after raising the bar with that performance against Tyrone in the semi-final. Still, consistency has always been their friend. One thing Mayo must do to win? They have to attack. They can’t afford to sit-back and allow Dublin easy possession from Stephen Cluxton’s kick-outs because the champions have shown time and again that they will overpower defensive set-ups. Key-head-to-head? Colm Boyle (Mayo) v Con O’Callaghan (Dublin) — It is a toss of a coin as to whether it is going to be Lee Keegan or Boyle who will pick O’Callaghan, but my money is on the latter. As for O’Callaghan, he is an outrageous talent. Who will win? Dublin — I believe that they are a better team than they were 12 months ago and they will underline that by having six points to spare at the end. A tenner on man-of-the-match: Jack McCaffrey (Dublin) — one of the most obvious reasons why the champions are even better and his season has been building up to a huge final. One thing Dublin must do to win? Mayo have the best ball carriers in football and Dublin will have to stop them in their tracks or pay a very significant price. One thing Mayo must do to win? They will have to be clinical. Not capitalising on a high enough percentage of their chances has cost them in the past, not least in last year’s drawn final. They have to make good on that. Key-head-to-head? Lee Keegan (Mayo) v Diarmuid Connolly (Dublin) — My gut feeling is that Connolly will start. Con O’Callaghan is untested against this quality of opposition. And even if Connolly does not start, he will see game-time and this pair will get it together again. Who will win? Mayo — Call it a gut feeling but they have lost so often that I just can’t see this group allowing it to happen again. It is going to be tight, most likely a one point squeeze. A tenner on man-of-the-match? Aidan O’Shea (Mayo) — He has shown leadership all season and this can be his crowning glory.