It’s time to test Leo’s mettle... Can he hold the line on the border, and stop us becoming a pet hate of Europe?

THE Taoiseach may be home from his whistlestop tour of Silicon Valley but if he has any sense he will start packing his bags again for a similar assault on European leaders for next month’s crucial Brexit talks.

As the critical EU summit on Britain’s departure fast approaches, an event which will call for every last ounce of his diplomatic skills and tactical nous, the next few weeks are a window of opportunity for him to impress on EU leaders, yet again, the vital importance of an open border to our national interest.

And it will be a careful balancing act. He will have to insist our needs be kept to the forefront, while not upsetting our EU partners to the degree that they turn against us. The last thing we need is to be seen as some sort of a bête noire on Brexit, a situation that might even see our stance hastening in a hard Brexit.

Leo Varadkar is already on good terms with French President Emmanuel Macron so if he is wise he might wrangle another invite to the Élysée Palace, and fly on to Berlin for a meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel. He should visit as many of the member states as possible to drum up support in the Brexit talks that restart in December.

The Government’s behind-the-scenes efforts to persuade the EU of the dangers posed by the threatened return of border posts have been successful, insofar as Irish issues are one of three areas which must be delivered on before talks progress on to a new trade deal between the EU and the UK. It’s clear the Government and the diplomatic corps have hammered home the message of the multiple threats posed by the return of a concrete border. The Northern peace pact hangs on its very absence, so its reappearance would be a fillip to dissident republicans.

A border would also introduce smuggling and racketeering into the region. Security would have to be ramped up as a result and old conflicts would re-ignite. Thousands of jobs in cross-border operations such as creameries and agriculture would be jeopardised, and maintaining the border would be another drain on the State’s resources.

But there is no guarantee that the EU’s commitment to avoiding a return of a border will remain rock-solid.

The goalposts could change as Theresa May’s team starts pushing for trade talks to begin in earnest, and EU anxiety to see a resolution to the crisis escalates.

Right now, the Taoiseach has a degree of leverage over Britain, and the opportunity to turn up the volume, so to speak, on the urgency of the potential crisis facing the country.

In a weekend interview European Affairs Minister Helen McEntee reiterated the Government’s policy on Brexit. The post-- Brexit transition period should take as long as necessary, she said, adding that it may not be possible to set a deadline.

The stumbling block to the streamlined process desired by all parties is the lack of clear proposals about what will happen to the border. Ms McEntee said: ‘The question around the border is still something we are not clear on, and this is what we need to get clarity from [Britain on].

‘What we are asking for is a political commitment around it . So they’re saying they don’t want physical infrastructure and we’re saying, “Great, we agree with you” – as does [EU Brexit negotiator] Michel Barnier and the taskforce. So what we need is a clear step as to how we would get to that direction.’

To date, the British have come up with a range of proposals about how a physical border can be avoided.

Striking

But the suggestion of an electronic or frictionless border has been dismissed as magical thinking by well-respected commentators, while the proposal for a border in the Irish Sea will not wash with the DUP, on whom Theresa May’s government depends for support.

Other than Brexit being reversed or delayed interminably, the best solution from our point of view is that the UK stays in the Customs Union and Single Market, in which case there would be no need for a border or for controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea. But Theresa May would be hard-pressed to sell that scenario to her party, given the constraints it would place on striking new trade deals with other countries, so we would be foolish to stake our future on it.

The lack of tangible solutions from the British is a symptom of the intractable nature of the problem.

As former EU commissioner, Pascal Lamy, put it in Dublin recently: ‘There is no “no border” solution.’

However, British indifference is also undeniably a factor. Our neighbours across the Irish Sea have no wish to return to the Troubles, with the dreadful bloodshed and spiralling costs that would entail, but in all other respects, they would greet the prospect of a return to checkpoints and army patrols with a complacent shrug of the shoulders.

Make no mistake, the priority for Theresa May and her negotiating team is to get the best trade deal possible for her country and to reduce the divorce bill.

The problem for Ireland is that if British trade is allowed to dominate the talks, without the border question being resolved, the latter will slip further down the agenda and swallowed up by issues of sovereignty, EU workers rights in Britain and so forth.

The border problem will have been put to one side, and as the British wave farewell to the EU institutions, we will be left holding the proverbial baby.

To avoid that scenario the Taoiseach and his diplomatic entourage will have to hold firm next month and have allies to keep our interests to the forefront.

Recent history suggests we don’t have much leverage with the EU. We were steamrolled over during the financial crisis; the casual manner by which we were forced to bail out German bondholders at the public’s expense shows we can’t look to Europe to safeguard our interests.

From now on we must stand on our own two feet, while cultivating valuable allies, a task we neglected over recent years when we were happy to rely on British muscle to fight our corner.

The risk, of course, of our new-found self-reliance is that we may be chastised for our obstinacy while our perceived narrow self-interest might sour relations not just with Britain but also with other EU countries.

Mr Varadkar may come under enormous pressure to roll over on the border and our negotiating position may be exploited by hardline Brexiteers in the UK and Westminster as further evidence of the futility of dealing with the EU and Ireland. Indeed our intransigence could be weaponised by anti-EU forces to hasten a hard Brexit and cause Britain to come crashing out of the bloc, giving rise to trade wars, an economic armageddon.

It would indeed be ironic if the EU country which has most to lose by Brexit, after, arguably, the British, and is most regretful of the referendum result would end up hastening the nightmare of a hard Brexit. But the risk of being isolated in Europe and potentially losing our biggest market, through a hard Brexit, is one we must take in the pursuit of our vital national interest.

These imminent negotiations represent the first and probably toughest challenge Leo Varadkar will face during his term as Taoiseach. His success or otherwise next month will tell us all we need to know about his leadership.