The Schmidt factor giving Ireland some good reasons to be positive this month
Box office boys in green will be keen to entertain full houses with big wins
November consistency has never wavered under Joe
HERE it is then, a November schedule with the exact same opposition as 2012 but with one crucial difference. This year, Ireland are box office.
Five years ago, Ireland’s reputation under Declan Kidney was at a low ebb. Neither of their Lansdowne Road games sold out (49,781 v the Boks and 43,406 v the Pumas) while the Fijian match was embarrassingly farmed out to lower-capacity Thomond Park where Ireland took to the field billed as an Irish XV so that the IRFU didn’t contravene its sponsorship deal with Aviva which insists all home Test matches must take place at the Aviva Stadium.
Having done brisk business on Ticketmaster last Thursday selling off the few returns they would have got back from the clubs, both next Saturday’s tussle with South Africa and the joust a fortnight later with Argentina are now supposedly sold out while sales have been decent for the mid-series Fiji game.
Call it the Schmidt effect. These winter matches are big business. Look at how RTÉ TV are charging €35,000 for a 30-second half-time advertising package across the three games.
The Six Nations might have become a bit of a consistency bother for Ireland in recent seasons, four defeats and a draw in their recent 10 games seeing an 80 per cent success rate during the title-winning seasons of 2014 and 2015 falling to 55.
However, their November consistency has never wavered on Schmidt’s watch — just three of 10 fixtures at this time of the year have been lost since Schmidt took charge in 2013, just one loss in the last seven.
Figures like this are fuelling confidence that this month can generate multiple reasons to smile.
The fixtures are book-ended by World Cup significance. Ireland sure would like to put one over South Africa given it’s the Boks they are lined up to meet in the quarter-finals at Japan 2019 if the seedings go to plan.
And they would also like to get one back at Argentina in the series finale as it is their first meeting since the nightmare of the 2015 quarter-final horribly unfolded in Cardiff.
That is the defeat which Schmidt hasn’t lost sight of, elimination arriving on foot of having the backbone of his team ripped asunder. It’s a vulnerability he has set about rectifying, 68 different players — 28 of them new caps — used in Ireland’s 20 matches since that World Cup exit in a desire to fulfil the aim of building a better squad for the next finals in two years’ time.
He used seven less players — 61 — in the opening 27 games of his reign from 2013 to 2015, just 17 new caps, so Schmidt can’t be accused of not attempting to scrutinise the depth available to him.
As is his habit, the coach has talked up the calibre of this month’s opposition a bit too much.
Truth is, Allister Coetzee’s Boks are a frustrating ensemble. Their 14-man spirit last time out against the All Blacks was an aberration in the general pattern of underwhelming results. More matches have been lost more than won under a struggling coach who badly needs Rassie Erasmus’ input to make things better.
Then there is the Pumas who have been on a dreadful run, just two wins (Japan and Georgia) in their last 17 in an era where they were supposed to be doing better now that most of their Test side plays together in the same Super Rugby club. Daniel Hourcade is running out of time and a poor November can spell the end for him.
As for the Fijians, the usual descriptions of flair and physicality cropped up in Schmidt’s assessment but collectively they are not the real deal which is the reason why Ireland will use this fixture to give the dice a roll and make as full use as possible of the inexperienced rump in its 38strong squad.
In 2014, when Ireland last had a three-Test November schedule (they had four games last year), Schmidt started 29 different players and used another one as sub, while the figures for 2013 were starts for 22 and seven more players used off the bench.
Already, Schmidt has indicated he will similarly mix things up this month, but rather than wait for Fiji to include unfamiliar faces, young blood Jacob Stockdale just might get a jump start on his fellow rookies and gain inclusion next Saturday.
His provincial form at Ulster,
where he has been scoring great tries for fun, demands he should be given a go versus the Boks to see can he hack it at this higher level and his current confidence means he is worth the risk.
The two prime areas, however, that need greater finessing are midfield and second row. With the Jared Payne/Robbie Henshaw axis — Schmidt’s most used pairing during his four-season tenure — enduring a considerable injury-enforced hibernation and with Garry Ringrose also in the wars, it’s back to an over-used drawing board.
21 different partnerships have been used in the coach’s 47 outings and the incredible stat within this cycle of frequent change is that 16 partnerships have only ever got one start together.
Next Saturday will either see a 22nd new combination trialled, Henshaw in tandem with newlyeligible project player Bundee Aki, or else the clock will be turned back to February 2016 with Henshaw given a second spin in unison with Stuart McCloskey, who disappeared from the radar after that Twickenham debut.
Whoever gets the nod as partner, the hope is that the likely tactic of positioning Henshaw at outside centre instead of his usual 12 slot can spark greater potency as the Lions centre has been more of a threat in that channel on the odd occasion he played there previously.
As for lock, it really is high time that Iain Henderson and Devin Toner began forging a more reliable partnership now that the Test career of French exile Donnacha Ryan is over.
This was the pairing touted to fill the gaping hole when Paul O’Connell called it quits, but they have only started four times together since the 2015 Argentina loss and memories of their horror last start, the February 2017 ambush at Scotland, must be eradicated, especially given the inexperience of the remaining second row options at Schmidt’s disposal.
Three wins and some encouraging combinations is the bottom line for Ireland.
They are tipped to deliver.