Ireland have the smarts to kick ahead in top four
THE latest world rankings were released yesterday with Ireland holding firm in fourth place behind New Zealand (1), England (2) and Australia (3).
The convoluted system can frequently throw up skewed pecking orders but that looks about right and, if results follow recent form, this quartet will make up the last four at the 2019 World Cup, with New Zealand facing England and Ireland taking on Australia for a place in the final.
Of course, the Japan tournament is too far away to be making confident predictions at this stage (particularly with Ireland’s penchant for flopping on the biggest stage) but there is still a definite sense of a gap developing between the top four and the rest.
The All Blacks have yet to face Eddie Jones’ rejuvenated England (that won’t happen until this time next year) but, even if they were to lose in Twickenham, New Zealand have a proven capacity for reinvention and will almost certainly enter the next tournament as favourites to win three World Cups in a row.
England were not overly impressive seeing off Argentina last Saturday but their World Cup mission under Jones is progressing so smoothly he could afford to rest Lions stars like Owen Farrell and Maro Itoje and they are starting to acquire the same air of authority Clive Woodward’s squad gained in the build-up to their 2003 triumph.
Then there are the Australians, beginning to look very menacing under Michael Cheika, who is building a side with the belief and depth to gain tangible reward — as evidenced by their recent win over New Zealand — after an extended bedding-in process (just like he did at Leinster).
The Wallabies have never been short of ball-handling backs or ball-winning backrows but, going all the way back to the John Eales era, have been consistently undone by the fragility of their front five. However, Cheika has finally got a scrum worth talking about and, in Rob Simmons and Adam Coleman, two second rows with genuine meanness in their make-up. What is encouraging from an Irish perspective is that, since November last year, Joe Schmidt has manufactured victories over all three teams ahead of them in the rankings and Ireland have not been standing still in the meantime. Both in terms of squad depth and tactical variety, Schmidt is developing his side all the time and the extent of their superiority over the Springboks in every facet of play last Saturday was startling. Bar a couple of knock-ons from Iain Henderson and a misjudged tackle from CJ Stander, this was an ultra-efficient performance by Ireland and, after showcasing a clutch of emerging players first up, Schmidt can let loose another batch against Fiji.
James Ryan, Andrew Porter, Adam Byrne, Stuart McCloskey and Darren Sweetnam are all worth assessing this weekend while there is also the enticing prospect of giving Joey Carbery his head at No10, where he can provide excellent, exuberant back-up to the peerless Johnny Sexton right the way through to the World Cup.
Exciting stuff and all adhering to the overriding theme of preventing a repeat of the 2015 World Cup quarter-final when injury to five frontline players created a hesitation in defence gleefully exploited by Argentina.
The most positive consequence of that reverse was the recruitment of Andy Farrell as defence coach and the ex-rugby league star has ensured that, no matter who is wearing the jersey, Ireland’s line speed will be consistently oppressive.
It was certainly more than South Africa could handle and their fifth place in the rankings looks generous based on last Saturday’s abject showing and their 57-0 drubbing by New Zealand in Albany last September.
To see players of the calibre of Eben Etzebeth and Malcolm Marx so listless was unexpected and suggests Allister Coetzee has not long to go as head man. There is the possibility of Rassie Erasmus overseeing a remarkable transformation in time for their likely quarter-final showdown with Ireland on October 20, 2019 but Schmidt’s men look to be a considerable distance further along the path. Given the political infighting in South African rugby (a fresh wave of attacks has been launched on the quota system since their Dublin humbling) and continuing exodus of talent overseas, it is a game of catch-up that may prove beyond Erasmus.
Behind the Springboks, Scotland will improve under Gregor Townsend but are way behind the top four in terms of depth and are currently trawling the globe for eligible players; Wales are in transition with a sense of the fight going out of their head coach Warren Gatland following the stress of the Lions tour to his homeland and its acrimonious fallout.
Meanwhile, the days when France could lurch from crisis to crisis before finding form at the World Cup (they have made three finals and six semi-finals) are gone.
The French are all over the shop and it is the shopping for overseas talent to pump up their domestic league that has crippled national ambitions and makes it impossible to see them as credible contenders for the next World Cup.
Ireland are most definitely in that bracket and, while we must not forget that the previous record win over South Africa came less than a year before the 2007 World Cup disaster, it feels different this time.
Schmidt has cemented his team’s claims on a place in the world’s top four and they will be extremely hard to budge.