53% SUPPORT THE RIGHT TO ABORTION UP TO 12 WEEKS

EXCLUSIVE POLL: Most would repeal Eighth

THE majority of Irish people support unrestricted abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, a poll for the Mail reveals today. When asked how they would vote in a referendum, 53.2% said they would back abortion being made available in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Only half this number – 26.8% – said they would vote against such liberalisation. Those who said they didn’t know amounted to one in eight voters (12.7%), while those who’d rather not say amounted

to 7.4%. When the undecided and doubtful were excluded, a referendum envisaging abortion on request in the first three months of pregnancy would be carried by two to one, the data indicated.

Two thirds are in favour (66.5%) with one third against (33.5%) when the simple binary choice is made, according to the exclusive Irish Daily Mail/Ireland Thinks poll.

It is the first test of voter sentiment since a Dáil committee report before Christmas recommended allowing terminations in the first trimester, in line with the recommendations of the Citizens’ Assembly.

There has long been political fear that the proposal was too liberal to be endorsed by the Irish people in a referendum. Now this poll would suggest that the Government could safely draft such a groundbreaking move in legislation, while asking the people to repeal the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution in a referendum in May.

The Taoiseach has indicated that there will be a basic proposal to repeal the 1983 amendment which recognises the equal right to life of the mother and the unborn child.

Over 65s only group against

Leo Varadkar says it is his intention to publish legislation in parallel that would set out how the law would be liberalised, if repeal was chosen by the people.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney has expressed unhappiness with a 12-week proposal, but says he is currently working on reading the final report of the Committee on the Eighth Amendment – 18 of whose members agreed with the central recommendation, with only three dissenting.

The Irish Daily Mail/Ireland Thinks poll indicates that all age groups would vote in favour of the proposal, apart from those aged over 65, which is the only cohort to show a majority against.

When ‘Don’t Knows’ ranging from 16-22% are excluded from all voting categories, support is seen at 85% in favour among young people aged 18-24, with only 15% against. Among those aged 25-34, a 12-week abortion regime would pass by 77% to 23%; and among the 35-44 cohort the majority is 69% to 31%.

It rises thereafter in the 45-54 age group to a 3:1 majority (75%/25%), before slipping to 61% to 39% between the ages of 55 and 64.

Only among pensioners, those aged 65 and over, does the antiabortion camp hold an advantage, and then barely – by 51% to 49%.

At gender level, there is close correlation overall between the sexes.

But support is strongest among young women, the group overwhelmingly affected by crisis pregnancy. A staggering 94% of women aged 18-24 are in favour of abortion on request in the first trimester, with only 6% opposed.

Our polling by Ireland Thinks, shows that Fianna Fáil supporters are least in favour of change, while Social Democrat and Green Party supporters are most in favour.

But even among FF voters, with party leader Micheál Martin holding conservative views on the topic, there are 50% in favour, 20% in the Don’t Know category, and only 30% firmly opposed.

Fine Gael also has a large number of Don’t Knows, but when these are excluded the Taoiseach can see a majority of 68% to 32% among his party in favour of the 12-week proposal.

Commenting on the results, pollster Kevin Cunningham told the Irish Daily Mail: ‘The composition of turnout can radically affect the outcome in referendums. Those that are more engaged and interested in the issue are more likely to turn out, the Seanad referendum being the best example of this. Those who wanted the Seanad to remain were more likely to turn out and vote, whereas those that cared little for it didn’t show up.

‘Similarly, in the recent referendum on marriage equality, the polls overestimated the result because much of the support for the proposal was among those who did not particularly care.

‘One could therefore draw the conclusion that much of the prochoice younger male vote may not turn out and vote.’

Ireland Thinks interviewed a random sample of 1,144 adults aged 18 and over by telephone between Thursday December 14 and Friday December 22.