THERE COULD BE A SILVER LINING FOR SHREWD SF

IS taking on Michael D a fool’s errand or a chance for some priceless publicity?

For a Sinn Féin candidate it will be the former; for the party that is Sinn Féin, the latter.

Republicanism has never been slow to pitch its activists into harm’s way for the greater good of the cause.

And once Mary Lou’s movement confirms on Saturday (via a meeting of its ard comhairle) that it will field a candidate – likely a young female against the elderly male incumbent – it will naturally open the door to others to seek to join the fray.

As Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and limping old Labour (original home of Michael D) shoo themselves over to the sidelines, the cry will go up that the Shinners should not be allowed a free run against the current President.

And that situation will naturally condition local authorities around the country to facilitating other candidates to get their names on the ballot, ‘in the interests of democracy’.

Even Fine Gael councillors are likely to collude, although the party is expected to formally confirm tonight that it is endorsing Michael D for a second term and will stand no party nominee in his way.

With Fianna Fáil already having decided to keep its powder dry in anticipation of the general election that must come within short months of the Áras steeplechase, the odds will be profoundly stacked in favour of the versifying Galwegian with the grandfatherly smile.

There is a wider power game in play than simply who occupies the draughty house of the former viceroy in the Phoenix Park, however. Republicanism, always interested in the long game, will see that it can lose and yet win.

It’s all about the continued ‘middle-classing’ of Mary Lou’s party. Buoyed by massive exposure when she effectively reaped the rewards of the Repeal the Eighth referendum, she will want to build further credibility with middle Ireland.

With Fianna Fáil leaving the battlefield free for the second Presidential election in a row, the Sinn Féin nominee is likely to inherit the mantle of ‘Most Credible Challenger’, even if that benchmark should only be judged against the dull ground of muddling senators with a misplaced sense of their own national importance. So even if barrel-chested ‘Miggledy’ blows the opposition out of the water on his way to a second sevenyear term, the prize on offer is that of coming second.

That’s a material and substantial property. The late Martin McGuinness could only come fifth in the 2011 field as Sinn Féin togged out for the first time since the Troubles, but a runners-up performance would confer substantial boasting rights.

AND the argument will be trotted out that if Michael D does not deserve to dominate the Presidency, that there should be a contest for the good of democracy, and furthermore that he is breaking his promise to only stand for a single term, then voting for a Sinn Féin candidate need not be a vote for Sinn Féin itself.

It can be the righteous refuge of the principled and conscientious objector to President Higgins’s untrammelled mé-féiner Michael D-ism. It’s a racing bet that such a school of thought, while in the minority, will comprise a substantial enough sliver of the electorate.

The challenge then will be for Sinn Féin to find a candidate who will wear the badge but not be obviously identifiable with class war, the blood struggle or the rest of their generalised hectoring. An ‘outside’ individual who can tick a number of boxes – female, belonging to a minority perhaps, of non-mainstream religion or none, prominent in the arts – would be ideal.

The project is to get swathes of people to vote Sinn Féin in the first place. And if they do, the ‘mainstream’ parties might come to regret their decision to sit this one out – since seats will soon be in question.