Varadkar’s ‘offer’ was a slap in the face for Fianna Fáil... they should slap back
REPORTS emanating from the socalled private meeting between Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin suggest the Taoiseach ‘offered’ Martin a two-year extension to the Confidence and Supply agreement. My first reaction was ‘that’s very big of him!’
Normally when someone offers something in these circumstances it suggests that there is a concession being granted or a quid pro quo for the other side. If you are a Fianna Fáiler, you would have to ask yourself, ‘what’s in it for us?’ Yes, of course, some commentators will encourage FF to agree to an extension in the interests of the country. No doubt, if they were to agree to an extension, they would get great editorial plaudits, but will those honeyed words pass muster with the ordinary voter on the doorstep, come election time?
But it would seem that the offer was cynically made in order to lay the blame on FF if an election is precipitated in the near future. FG are, no doubt, sarcastically saying that the offer would be doing FF a favour in that they are currently languishing in the polls. But, one way or the other, politically, it’s hard to see any political advantage for FF in such an offer. FG just seem to continue to rise in the polls, on the back of FF’s unswerving support for the Confidence and Supply agreement. And all the time, FF are dropping in the polls.
Huge credit must go to Micheál Martin who ‘saw the bigger picture’ after the very inconclusive last election by agreeing to prop up a cobbled-together FG-led Government, but from a purely political point of view, FF must be saying to themselves, enough is enough.
THEY have had to bite their (collective) tongues time and again, while FG are, politically, laughing up their sleeves at FF’s waning popularity. It’s often said that Opposition, and especially being leader of the Opposition, is the loneliest job in politics. It’s all the more difficult for FF who have always seen themselves as a party of government. FG and Independent ministers can portray themselves as being totally in charge, whereas, in reality, everything they want to do must get FF’s approval. Even FG backbenchers, on many issues, are behaving like Opposition spokespersons on the airwaves, and getting away with it.
The very way it got out that Taoiseach Varadkar had offered FF an extension is a real slap in the face to FF. Martin took a few days to respond by acknowledging that such an offer had, in fact, been made but that the Taoiseach was ‘chancing his arm’. It is undoubtedly the case that Brexit is a complicating factor, but that shouldn’t mean that FF be taken for granted. It’s clear that there are many in FF who are peeved at the way FG have treated them with disdain, at times. Their outspoken TD John McGuinness spoke for a good few when he called for FF to be more aggressive in Opposition. Naturally, the Taoiseach and his ministers will use Brexit as justification for their ‘offer’, but, in politics, how often have we heard the call that ‘we don’t need a election now’ because of some impending crisis?
Remember the efforts by previous governments to cling to power for fear that it might damage the ongoing peace process! ‘Don’t hit me with the peace process – baby in my hands!’ The reality in politics is that there is always some crisis hanging around that can be used as an excuse not to destabilise the sitting government.
Other voices in FF will say that they will use the upcoming budget to insist on implementation of some of their policies. But the nature of budget day announcements is that the minister and the party making the statement get all the credit, while the initiator of the policy hardly gets a mention. I should know! For my five budgets as minister for social welfare, I fought tooth and nail to get social welfare increases in my budget negotiations, always against huge opposition from Finance officials and, often, from their minister. And yet, when it came to budget day, the finance minister and his officials basked in all the plaudits for the concessions I fought for, even though, in many cases, they had vehemently opposed the sought increases right up to the wire! So, FF have a huge job on their hands if they are to stamp their mark on the next budget.
To date, their efforts, in this regard, have been relatively unsuccessful. The Government have been able to portray the previous budgets as being theirs alone. Don’t be surprised if there is some big stand-off leading up to budget day, whereby FF refuses to back it, because of some red line issue. Only that way will the average voter realise that it was FF, and not FG, who pushed for the beneficial budgetary changes.
It has to be said that FF haven’t helped themselves. They have valiantly proposed some policy initiatives, but if one were to stop a passerby in the street, and ask ‘can you name any policy to differentiate FF from the Government’, that person would be hard pressed to come up with one suggestion. True, it is always difficult for an opposition party to gain the headline, but, apart from great work on mortgages, and especially tracker mortgages, they have had extreme difficulty trying to show that they have something different to offer.
But they need to do more to show that they are different, and that they are a viable and better alternative to the current government arrangement.
THEY need to propose exciting, innovative policies that catch the imagination of the general public. They did it before, particularly in the run-up to the 1997 election, when they had over 40 policy documents launched in the immediate run-up to that election. Not only was this extremely helpful across the airwaves and in the media generally, but was also vital on the doorsteps for the average FF canvasser, who was able to refer to a policy document, if a particular issue was raised by a potential voter.
Another case in point is their decision not to put up a candidate for the Presidency. They can justify their decision because no incumbent has previously been challenged, but, by aligning themselves to FG, in supporting President Higgins, they are copper-fastening the perception that they are not an alternative to FG. By not contesting it, they missed an ideal opportunity to show clear water between themselves and FG. And, in the meantime, they have given an open goal to SF who will milk the next few months for all their worth.
So, the next few months will be vital for FF if they are to reclaim some of their political relevance. How they deal with the election baiting by some in FG, including the Taoiseach, will be a further test of Martin’s statesmanship. I’m not for one minute suggesting that it will be easy, but they do need to quickly adopt positions in such a way as to distinguish themselves from the consensus rut they find themselves in.