A POLL THAT WILL BE A KNIFE IN THE HEART OF MOST ARAS HOPEFULS
THE Ireland Thinks poll reveals that Michael D Higgins retains a commanding lead over his rivals, underlining the nation’s continued ambivalence towards unseating the sitting president. Higgins’s popularity stretches across all demographic groups, geographies, and indeed he commands the largest share of all second preferences.
The poll makes two interesting points. The first relates to the validity of polling data recently published in some media outlets and attributed to Sean Gallagher, which suggested Gallagher was a serious challenger.
That data indicated Gallagher was on 29%, that’s ten points behind the President, and that the challenger would get more second preferences than Higgins. The Ireland Thinks poll reveals that the gap is upwards of 50% and Higgins benefits from more second preferences than Gallagher. The results are so different that it is hard to take the Gallagher poll seriously.
This matters: opinion polls can be self-fulfilling prophesies, influencing behaviour.
Psychologists have long observed the ‘bandwagon effect’, that people conform to opinions they think are popular. This has also been verified across a number of experiments and observational studies, in the context of elections showing how the reporting of public opinion polls can directly affect support for candidates.
Indeed, it is such a staple in US primaries that it is commonly referred to as ‘the Big Mo’, relating to which candidate currently has momentum. The presidential election here is a very similar beast. As in the US primaries, ideology takes a backseat and personality is in the front. This is why publishing opinion polls is typically banned on polling day until exit polls.
And it’s why media need to be careful about publishing polling data from a particular candidate or organisation, which may be intended to push a particular agenda, rather than using polls they have independently commissioned themselves.
The second point raised by the Ireland Thinks poll relates to the level of support for Joan Freeman, symbolising the nation’s preference for the professorial in three academics – Robinson, McAleese and Higgins over the ‘do-gooder’. This is something that doesn’t quite fit with our perceptions of ourselves, and isn’t consistent with preferences when it comes to general elections, where the professorial frequently struggle – indeed both Robinson and McAleese failed to be elected to the Dáil in three attempts between the two, while it took Higgins five attempts before he was first elected in Galway West. In past presidential elections Adi Roche, Mary Davis and now Joan Freeman failed to garner significant support. On paper they are very strong candidates, unrivalled in terms of what they have achieved: Adi Roche’s work in relation to Chernobyl, Mary Davis and the Special Olympics and Joan Freeman of Pieta House.
While issues emerged during past campaigns, they were perceived as ‘too obvious’. Adi Roche was the Labour candidate’s human rights campaigner and perceived as the natural successor to Mary Robinson while Mary Davis similarly had been a member of the Council of State and sat on a large number of boards of government administration. Joan Freeman is also a Taoiseach-nominated senator.
Perhaps there is something in the Irish psyche that doesn’t like what might be perceived to be the ‘obvious choice’.
FINALLY, it is worth adding that there remain a number of unknowns, as early polls are rarely conclusive in this type of race. While more candidates are entering the race by the day it remains to be seen which candidate, and there will be a candidate, will get ‘the Big Mo’.
And when they do, given the nature of these campaigns which have damaged all but the eventual winner, they will be in the firing line as President Higgins is now.
The last two presidential elections revealed a collapse in support for Adi Roche, David Norris and Sean Gallagher, but even minor candidates have all emerged severely damaged.
The only thing that is certain is that it will be a bumpy ride.