WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? POMP, CEREMONY... AND THE REALISATION THAT - AS WE HAVE WARNED - BORIS WANTS NO-DEAL

FOR something that is so extraordinarily serious, the act of proroguing the British parliament is carried out in a manner so archaic that it might otherwise seem hilarious. There’s an awful lot of black tights and bizarre hats (and that’s mostly the men), some parchment, a few lines of 11th-century French and a veritable swathe of hat-doffing.

Assuming the Queen doesn’t actually choose to prorogue parliament herself, on October 10, her Royal Commission – essentially a group of her appointed representatives – will enter the House of Lords’ Chamber. One of the commissioners will then declare: ‘My Lords, it not being convenient for her Majesty personally to be present here this day, she has been pleased to cause a Commission under the Great Seal to be prepared for proroguing this present Parliament.’

Then, the Lady Usher of the Black Rod (no, I’m not making that title up – she’s actually a woman called Sarah Clarke, who used to be director of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships) will summon the House of Commons.

Once MPs have arrived, the Royal Commission and representatives of the Commons – including the Speaker, the Clerk and the Serjeant at Arms – will greet each other ceremonially. The members of the House of Lords doff their hats, and the MPs and officials of the House of Commons bow in return.

The Reading Clerk will then produce a piece of parchment containing the official command of the Queen appointing her Royal Commission. After that, the assembled throng go through the list of any current Acts that have been passed by Parliament but are still waiting Royal Assent (the equivalent of the President signing Bills into law here).

As each Act is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament will turn to face MPs and declare ‘La Reyne le veult’ – which is Norman French for ‘the Queen wishes it’. The Leader of the House will then read a speech from the Queen (although it is actually written by the Prime Minister and his team) reviewing the past session. And with that, Parliament is prorogued.

THERE is one final ceremony, though: MPs will then return to the Commons chamber, where the Speaker – sitting at the Clerk’s table, not in his usual seat – announces any Acts that have received Royal Assent and then repeats the speech that was just delivered in the House of Lords. Once he’s done, MPs will file past him out of the chamber, shaking his hand as they go.

But never before in recent history has this ceremonial act – one which usually happens every few years – carried such huge import. Certainly, no suspension of Westminster has met with this kind of reaction for centuries. And at its heart is a disarmingly simple question: What the hell is Boris Johnson up to now?

Judging by the reaction of the UK opposition, the answer is: ‘Staging a parliamentary coup.’ It is, they say, no less than an outrageous attempt to thwart democracy. More specifically,

the opposition parties are united in saying that the British prime minister has suspended parliament so as to prevent MPs passing laws that would block a No-Deal Brexit.

And in real terms, they’re right. Boris Johnson and his allies may say this is a perfectly ‘bog standard’ prorogation, of the type that happens during the course of most parliaments. But the clear practical effect this time is to reduce the amount of parliamentary time available to opponents of No-Deal.

That said, however, it’s not as if Mr Johnson has suspended parliament between now and the Brexit date. There will still be a handful of sitting days for MPs to debate what they want, and to try and pass laws preventing No-Deal. So while he has reduced the amount of debating time, Boris hasn’t stopped debate entirely.

There is certainly still a small window of opportunity for Remain MPs – backed to the hilt by an outraged Speaker of the Commons – to try and block NoDeal one way or another.

So what indeed is Boris up to? Why create such a massive backlash, including the likelihood of mass demonstrations? Why unite his opponents against him? Why run the risk of being labelled a dictator – something the voters of Middle England are very much instinctively against?

Certainly, I don’t believe for a second this hasn’t been thought through. There’s a plan here. And it’s a plan that has been put together by Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s chief adviser, the man who engineered the vote to leave the EU in the first place.

Only last week, Mr Cummings was described to me (by someone who has known him for many years) as ‘a terrorist’ and ‘a man who wants to crash the train through the barriers at 100 miles an hour’. He believes that in order to effect change, you have to smash the system (or blow it up) and rebuild it from scratch. In terms of Brexit, that means he’s absolutely committed to leaving without a deal.

He also knows full well that the EU is not going to change its position: so if Brexit is going to happen, to him No-Deal is not only the preferred option – it’s the only viable option.

So how does proroguing parliament help? Well, it certainly reduces the chance of MPs blocking No-Deal through new legislation. What I and many commentators suspect, though, is that Boris Johnson is really trying to precipitate a general election. In particular, he is daring the Remainers to decide that the only practical way to thwart No-Deal is to call a vote of No Confidence in him.

If they do, however, they will be playing into his hands.

UK election law says that after a No Confidence vote, there are 14 days during which the prime minister can resign, and recommend to the Queen that somebody else might be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.

But the prime minister does not have to resign. He can, in theory, simply stay on in Downing Street and refuse to step aside: after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered. An election means parliament is dissolved – leaving the country to be run solely by the prime minister in the interim.

Looking at the parliamentary timetable, the earliest date for a general election would probably be October 25 – just six days before Brexit Day. More likely would be an election on Brexit Day itself – or thereafter.

As the veteran British journalist Robert Peston reported yesterday, a No.10 source explained it thus: ‘If MPs pass a no confidence vote next week, then we’ll stay in No.10, we won’t recommend any alternative government, we’ll dissolve parliament and we’ll have an election between 1-5 November.’

And by that point, Britain will, by default, have left the EU – without a deal. Seen in that light, Mr Johnson’s actions yesterday are, in their way, like Caesar crossing the Rubicon – a gesture of defiance designed explicitly to provoke a war with his opponents.

It’s a gamble, for certain: but he has gambled throughout his career – and that approach has ultimately taken him to the highest political office in the UK.

OF course, it’s still possible that MPs will find an alternative way to try and block a No Deal: we’re into such uncharted waters here that anything at all is possible. But assuming Mr Johnson has his way – and as prime minister, he has a great deal of official power on his side – then we need to adjust to the fact that No Deal is where we’re heading. All those Government ministers and advisers who’ve been telling me for months that Boris is just bluffing, that he’ll back down in the end, need to recognise that the opposite is true.

That’s not to say our Government should back down. They couldn’t now, even if the Irish people wanted them to – which they don’t. It was clear years ago (to anyone paying attention) that taking a tough stance on the border issue would probably lead to No-Deal: but it’s a policy which has wholehearted support across the country and across the political spectrum. On that issue too, as Caesar would have it, ‘ilia iacta est’.

So all we can do now – besides shaking our heads in bewilderment – is start working on the basis that No-Deal is happening. Every business in the country must prepare accordingly; the forthcoming Budget must be put together with that likelihood in mind.

We need to start thinking constructively about what kind of arrangements we want with Britain after a No Deal. And, just as crucially, we need to strain every sinew to ensure that the EU is preparing a substantial package of financial assistance to help us through such a scenario. As I have said from the start, Ireland is uniquely affected by Brexit: and if the European Union, as a concept, is to mean anything at all, then the EU must come to our assistance as No-Deal looms.