LEAVE WITH NO DEAL ON OCTOBER 31:

30% CHANCE

ROUTE: Boris Johnson either survives or does not face a no-confidence vote. He fails to negotiate a new deal with the EU or persuades the Commons to vote for one. As a result, his government leads Britain out of the EU on October 31 without a deal.

COMMENT: That would not be the end of the story. Johnson might then call, or otherwise be forced into, a general election soon after.

‘MESSY’ NO DEAL AND NO-ONE IN CHARGE: 20% CHANCE

ROUTE: Johnson loses a no-confidence vote but opposition forces cannot agree on an alternative government in the 14 days required by law. An election is called and Britain leaves without a deal during the campaign.

COMMENT: This is the nightmare scenario for Remainers and is more likely than many might admit.

LEAVE WITH A DEAL ON OCTOBER 31: 10% CHANCE

ROUTE: Johnson would have to survive a no-confidence vote or not face one at all. He would then need to renegotiate Theresa May’s Brexit deal, have parliament ratify it and allow Britain to leave on time.

COMMENT: Deutsche Bank says the chances of this scenario are just one in ten. Others think even that is optimistic, believing that the EU will stubbornly refuse to renegotiate or the Commons will again vote down a newl deal.

‘UNITY’ GOVERNMENT TO STOP NO DEAL: 30% CHANCE

ROUTE: Johnson loses a no-confidence vote. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, veteran Tory Europhile Ken Clarke or someone else forms a ‘unity’ government to cancel or postpone Brexit before a general election.

COMMENT: Remainers seem to have pulled back from this, after – ironically – failing to decide what form their government of ‘national unity’ would take and who would lead it. Lib Dems, Greens and pro-EU Tories are adamant they don’t want Corbyn in Number 10, even for a few weeks.

SNAP ELECTION: 5% CHANCE

ROUTE: Opposition MPs pass legislation to prevent No Deal, but Johnson refuses to abide by it. Instead, he calls an election before October 31, promising to overturn the legislation if he wins. If Labour wins or parliament is hung, the result could be No Deal, no Brexit or a second referendum. COMMENT: This might seem low, given the fevered speculation in Remainleaning media. But these long odds are for an imminent election that follows legislation to prevent No Deal. Such a move would play into Corbyn’s hands. He has long yearned to exploit the political chaos of Brexit to become prime minister and introduce his socialist policies. William Hill is offering 4/9 odds against a general election being held in Britain later this year.

EXTENSION TO ARTICLE 50: 5% CHANCE

ROUTE: Opposition MPs and Tory rebels vote to pass legislation in the Commons blocking No Deal. Johnson reluctantly troops to Brussels to beg for another extension for Article 50 and once again delay Britain’s departure from the EU.

COMMENT: As of this week, this is Corbyn’s preferred route, rather than seeking to form a government of national unity. Deutsche Bank’s research, however, may make him question whether this is the right call – the bank sees only a one in 20 chance of Remainers pulling this off. And even if Article 50 was again extended, Britain might still leave without a deal in the future.