Independents key to making this unlikely marriage work
LOVE affairs start in different ways. The laws of attraction are unusual, and limited options are an extremely powerful aphrodisiac.
The first signs that the latest Leinster House romance was blossoming came with a late-night vote.
No better time to signal your new political relationship to the public than voting in unison against a rent freeze.
On Thursday night, as emergency legislation was passing through the Dáil, an amendment to extend the rent freeze from three to 12 months was narrowly defeated by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but only with the help of their potential new government partners, the Regional Independent Group, who have installed Denis Naughten as their ‘convener’, and the Rural Independent Group, whipped by Mattie McGrath.
The other members of the Regional Independents are Cathal Berry, Seán Canney, Verona Murphy, Michael Lowry, Peter Fitzpatrick, Matt Shanahan, Noel Grealish and Aontú TD Peadar Tóibín.‘
The Rural Independents are Michael and Danny Healy-Rae, Michael Collins, Richard Donoghue and Carol Nolan.
On social media that night, some of the Independent TDs were coming under fire from supporters for voting against the rent freeze.
Being on the unpopular side of controversial votes – in what will be a time of great economic turmoil – is an early hint at what they can expect from this relationship.
But love is blind and power is attractive.
Emerging unscathed after four years as the junior partner in an unpopular government is next to impossible, as the Green and Labour parties know all too well.
It will take two to three weeks to see if Thursday night’s showing manifests into more than a mere fling, and will depend on the what the other Independent Group – which includes Michael Fitzmaurice, Marian Harkin, Michael McNamara, Catherine Connolly, Joan Collins and ThoThe mas Pringle – has to offer.
Earlier in the week, the Green Party were clear that they would not be shotgunned into a polyamorous political marriage, despite their leader Eamon Ryan’s strong desire to do so.
Mr Ryan’s influence is waning in the party. In the mediumterm, this could place a question mark over his position as leader.
Most of his new TDs are not for turning on the question of entering into government talks. Continuing with the line that government formation talks should not take place during the Covid-19 crisis has led to a lot of eye-rolling from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael who feel that they are being reckless in a time of crisis.
A source on one of the negotiating teams said they are now preparing for life without the Greens but that ‘channels would be kept open’ if they were to have a change of heart.
The Greens’ exit from the political dancefloor has left Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with limited options.
However, Labour, under a soonto-be appointed new leader, could also decide to come back into the reckoning.
A party source this week told me that they ‘would not prevent a government being formed’ if called upon, but they are likely to sit back and watch what happens with the independents first.
A programme for government between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is being put together on the basis that there are three phases to agree on.
The first is to deal with life during the emergency which we currently find ourselves in.
The second relates to how they will rebuild the economy and start on a path to economic recovery.
final stage comes when they expect to have some fiscal space to move on with the implementation of headline policy issues in areas such as health and housing.
Sources in the Regional Independent Group this week told me that their focus will be on securing regional development outside of Dublin.
It is a primary goal of the group to enable a much larger proportion of the population to work remotely than is currently the case.
‘That would have been a big ask a month ago, not so now,’ one source said.
A potential agreement would bring their total seat count to 81, a thin majority with just one more than the 80 required to form a government.
Their selection as partners has provisional agreement between both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s negotiating teams.
Serious talks will not begin with the two Independent Groups until an agreement is hammered out between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but that could be done as early as the coming week. It would seem that the old rivals are finally ready to take their relationship to the next step.
Amid the escalating coronavirus crisis, spare a thought for the two negotiating teams from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil who have been meeting in a seemingly abandoned and desolate Leinster House during the week.
The catering staff have been operating on a stripped-back schedule and are only on site during sitting days.
On Wednesday, top brass from both parties who were locked in talks had the cumbersome task of re-heating their own meals in the member’s restaurant at lunch time.
With the kitchen staff not on site, a message was circulated to the TDs.
‘The meals are stored in the fridge of the Member’s Restaurant, located at the Well of Daffodils,’ the message said.
‘The simple instructions for heating a meal selected is as follows…’
TDs microwaving their own dinners. We really are living in extraordinary times.
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