Calculation adds up to nightmare for many clubs

IF ALL goes to plan, no formulas will be required to decide who falls out of the Premier League this season. That does not mean the dreaded points-per-game calculation has gone away, however. It still looms large and more dangerous than ever, because next time it has the potential to affect everybody, or anybody.

The subject of what will happen in the event the season cannot be completed has proved so divisive, pitting six relegation-threatened clubs against the rest, that it seems increasingly likely the campaign will restart without a resolution.

The Premier League will gamble they can complete on the field, as the Bundesliga seems likely to do — and, if not, the curtailment debate can be had there and then, as a matter of emergency.

It would be negligent, however, to start next season with the same uncertainty hanging over the competition. If coronavirus — or the threat of another outbreak or pandemic — is likely to be with us for some time, the league will need a way to decide placings if a season is suspended again.

The suggested method is likely to be points per game, except this time, when a vote is taken, every club could feel its effects.

As those near the bottom have consistently pointed out, most of the clubs voting on PPG have nothing to lose — for now. They are safe. The worst that could happen is they fall the odd place or two. Not so next season.

Those smaller clubs comfortably mid-table or better — Sheffield United, Crystal Palace, Burnley, Southampton — might find themselves in the position of West Ham, Brighton or Watford. They could be dragged into the Championship on an unfinished season and a mathematic equation. So, who feels lucky? If curtailment plans are voted on when this season ends, but before the next one begins, every club will have zero points. The elite will feel confident they can stay safe. But is everyone so assured? What of the newly-promoted clubs, Leeds for instance, or West Bromwich?

With Football League chairman Rick Parry threatening legal action if his teams are not allowed up — even, ludicrously, if his own competition does not finish — would these new members be prepared to gamble on the fairness of the calculation they wish to see used against Premier League clubs this season?

At yesterday’s meeting there was more talk of fairness. Of how just it would be if the Premier League finished, producing three relegated clubs, and the Championship did not — producing only the best guesses of an outcome in an incomplete season. Would it be right for Norwich to drop, having played 46 games to get up, only to be replaced by a club that did not go through the same process?

Until now, there would be 14 clubs willing to put the television money first, sacrifice the hindmost, and say Yes.

Now, confronted with their own mortality, a few might be having second thoughts. It’s a cruel world out there, staring into the void.