LONG ROAD BACK TO NORMALITY
ONE thing that I find hard to accept, emotionally, is that we are just at the start of this crisis.
Death rates in many countries are falling, but rising in others. New Zealand and Iceland have managed to control the virus by cutting themselves off, but it is hard to see others doing so, long term. Until there is a vaccine we must find ways to live with the virus. One way, for nations which can afford it, is to follow the example of South Korea. That means social distancing, wearing masks in public, testing and tracking. The last two mean that people who get infected can be detected, isolated and treated before they spread it to others.
Once there are reliable antibody tests we may also see immunity passports. These would be digital documents, probably stored on your phone, which prove you have been infected, and so immune.
People with these passports would be allowed to return to work and a relatively normal daily life. But the documents would be open to fraud and some who test negative might be tempted to become infected just to get one.
Socialising
IN THE future we may have to use a ‘lift, suppress, lift’ approach to social distancing. More children will return to school, universities will reopen and restrictions on social gatherings will be relaxed. But once there are signs the virus is spreading again, on will go the brakes. The uncertainty will be very damaging to the economy.
I would love to see this virus burn out as others have, but I think that is unlikely. Covid-19 is already too well established. Unless we get a vaccine, Covid-19, like the influenza virus, is likely be with us for a long, long time.
It could mutate into a less dangerous form so fewer people die of it, as happened with swine flu in 2009. But I wouldn’t be sure.
So, hugs, handshakes, and large social gatherings are likely to be off the menu for a long time. People are already anxious about going outside and socialising. What will happen to elderly people, like my mother? How can we keep them safe without them remaining physically isolated?
It will be a long road back to normality. But if you are an optimist, as I am, you must hope the pandemic brings out the best in us and spurs the world into dealing with new crises more effectively.