TIME FOR AN ELECTION?
MICHEÁL Martin and Leo Varadkar have spent the last few days telling everyone that there is no ‘Plan B’ should a government not be formed this weekend. There is actually, though. It is called a general election.
Of course, ‘nobody’ wants a second election. At least that’s something that has been heard often since the vote in February. But how true a claim is that and does it really matter even if it is accurate? This ‘nobody’ line is said most often by the politicians who don’t want to have to seek votes again, in case they lose their seats or have to spend too much money retaining them.
They claim to speak for voters too when they make the ‘nobody’ claim, but voters feign antipathy or indifference to all elections and most people then just get on with voting when the big day comes. Some even enjoy it all, even if they pretend otherwise.
Sections of the media aren’t enthusiastic either about the idea of covering two general elections in a year: they cost a lot of money and for limited rewards. The health-conscious too have expressed worry about trying to run an election at a time of social distancing. Would it be safe to make people, especially the vulnerable, queue at polling stations? And how would the counting be conducted?
WELL, people have become used to queuing in recent months, and it’s rare to see a polling booth so busy that anyone would have to queue for any lengthy period.
Postal voting could be introduced without too much difficulty. Gloves and masks and controlled numbers at the count centres will look after any problems; it’ll just take more time than usual to do the counting.
So if it can be done it should be done. But does it need to be done? The reality is many are preparing for a second election, believing it is more than just possible. It will almost certainly happen if we discover, on Friday, that the Green Party members have rejected the proposal to form a coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. A two-thirds majority is a high bar to vault. And even if the voting structure within Fine Gael means acceptance is almost guaranteed, nobody should assume Fianna Fáil agreement is automatic.
A friend told me recently of attending a club AGM via Zoom.
Several members hijacked the discussion on one contentious topic and loudly objected to the plans. The issue went to a vote and, despite the complaints, was carried by a big majority, with more than 80% in favour. ‘The silent majority,’ noted my friend.
There’s a widespread expectation among pundits that Fianna Fáil members will vote in the required majority. This is based largely on the rationale that Fianna Fáil would be even more badly damaged by a fresh election and has no option but to avoid it. But many decisions are made for emotional reasons.
While the Fianna Fáil hierarchy and (most) TDs want to take power, there may still be a substantial number of long-standing
Fianna Fáil members (die-hards) who just cannot stomach the idea of sharing power with the hated rival of Fine Gael.
They might even prefer to do business with the so-called fellow republicans of Sinn Féin. Voting in a secret ballot – even if the envelopes are stamped to ensure they are legitimate – can turn up some strange results.
Such an outcome would bring Martin’s leadership to an end – but in an era of unexpected outcomes it would be stupid to dismiss the possibility.
Fianna Fáil’s internal dissidents could see a deal with Sinn Féin – who most likely would demand Mary Lou McDonald as Taoiseach – and the Greens or Independents as preferable to sharing power with Fine Gael. The idea that they would not be swept away in such circumstances by the younger, hungrier more populist Sinn Féin is almost laughable, but if this was the only alternative to another election, they might be crazy enough to try it. Otherwise, Sinn Féin will run loads of second (or third) candidates in constituencies where it didn’t take advantage of its surprise vote last February, most probably at the expense of Fianna Fáil.
One of the tricks within politics is to avoid being blamed for causing an election ‘unnecessarily’. Fianna Fáil might find the damage limited if it is the victim of a Green decision, but it will be banjaxed if its own membership collapses the coalition deal.
However, we have to ask if the machinations involved in forming a new government are too contrived and indeed worth it. We have a programme that is barely costed and might collapse under the weight of its own internal contradictions. A new contest could offer the potential for a more cohesive and longer-lasting administration than the one Martin may form this weekend.