WHY BIG PHIL IS NOT TOO BIG TO FAIL
The EU high-flyer may not be as indispensable as some would have us all believe
IT is clear that Phil Hogan is not the resigning type. He will have to be fired from his position as EU Commissioner or he will brazen things out. Last night the three party leaders in the Coalition sharpened the axe by issuing a highly critical statement, but they will not take it to Hogan’s thick and hard neck.
They will have to hand it to Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU Commission, and ask her to use it.
But they haven’t done that so far, as they weigh up the need to satisfy the public desire to punish Hogan and his perceived importance to the national interest.
The phrase ‘too big to fail’ is one readily associated with the banks, too important to be allowed suffer the consequences of their own recklessness, getting bailed out no matter how unjust or unfair that seems to everyone else.
Hogan seems to be turning into a human version of that saying. He is regarded by some to be ‘too big to fall’, apparently too important to Ireland in his role as Trade Commissioner as negotiations between the EU and UK over a new trade deal develop.
Therefore, he is effectively seeking a free pass on punishment for his indiscretions; no matter that others have suffered the fate of losing their positions as a result of their stupidity in attending a dinner for the Oireachtas Golf Society at Clifden, Co. Galway, last Wednesday evening. And the others didn’t have even the nationwide touring or ‘mobile phone when driving’ incidents to add to the charge sheet.
‘Too Phil to fire’ might sum it up. And too hard-necked to resign.
This is an issue of political judgement for the Government, which, as has been pointed out, doesn’t actually have the power to remove the person it nominated for the European Commission.
Hogan doesn’t have many friends in Fine Gael either. He was regarded as Enda Kenny’s enforcer, unpopular with many due to the rather brutish tactics used to get his way. His former colleagues also remember his dismal handling of Irish Water during his spell as Minister for the Environment.
If his promotion to Brussels in 2014 was a plum and lucrative reward from Kenny for services rendered in staving off a Fine Gael leadership coup in 2010, it was also a useful way of getting him off the domestic political stage.
Nobody could have imagined that six years later he would create even more problems for
Fine Gael and the Government. He may enjoy a good personal relationship with Leo Varadkar, but were it not for the perceived importance of the position he holds in Brussels, he would be expendable, politically kaput.
However, the Government’s main men have been giving us mixed messages as to whether they really want him to resign as Commissioner or not, in statements almost as contradictory as much of the recent public health advice.
It seems that Micheál Martin and Varadkar want to have their cake and eat it. They want to be seen to be appalled and outraged at Hogan, and to demand atonement, but they are not prepared to go as far as asking the president of the EU Commission – Ms von der Leyen – to fire him.
The reluctance appears to stem from the belief that Hogan’s continuance in his existing job is absolutely essential to the EU getting a trade deal with the UK that is beneficial to Ireland.
But his importance in that regard may be greatly exaggerated.
This position depends apparently upon an assumption that Hogan serves Ireland first and the EU second, but that is not his paid job.
Indeed, many Irish farmers believed, rightly or wrongly, that when it came to the highly controversial Mercosur trade deal – at a time when Hogan was Agriculture Commissioner – he did not provide the level of protection to Irish interests that they wanted.
It is also assumed that Hogan has some special diplomatic skills that somehow only he possesses. Given the faulty judgement he has exhibited in recent weeks, and his gauche interview with RTÉ yesterday evening, that attribution may be excessively generous to him.
We don’t know if a nominee to replace Hogan would be given the same job, but surely the chances are that a senior person, well enough known to the EU Commission, would be slotted straight into the job for the sake of continuity. The Commission has no reason to reshuffle the entire pack simply to deny Ireland access to this role.
It is not hard to imagine that someone like Simon Coveney – as Minister for Foreign Affairs – or Richard Bruton – no longer a minister but still very able and, in addition, a brother of the former EU ambassador to Washington John – would not be acceptable to Ms von der Leyen as a more than able replacement... or, indeed, an improvement.
And if the Government wanted to avoid a by-election that would be caused by the departure of either from the Dáil, then Mairead McGuinness’s seniority in the European Parliament would hold her in good stead for such an appointment.
It would be a risk of course, and it also assumes that Ireland’s best interests cannot be served if we don’t hold the trade portfolio. Does that suggest we believe that the EU, without an Irish Trade Commissioner, would do a deal that is of benefit to the EU overall but not Ireland specifically, or that it would give away too much without a large Irish voice in the room?
There is also a concern that it would constitute bad precedent for the European Commission if a commissioner was to be removed because of a domestic political issue or pressure brought on by a national government.
But this is not a case of wanting to break a man’s soup bowl, even if Hogan’s job is highly lucrative – worth about €336,000 per annum – and it allows him to use properties in Brussels, Kilkenny, and Kildare. And it should also be remembered that only months ago Hogan seriously considered ditching the job he now clings to so desperately.
Hogan saw himself as having a shot at following in the footsteps of Peter Sutherland and becoming director general of the World Trade Organisation, making his interest in the vacancy publicly known.
His conceit was misplaced. He could not garner the necessary support. Having been side-lined from some key trade talks by the Commission because of a danger of a perceived conflict of interest, Hogan announced in late June that he would not be a candidate and would return to his full duties.
The Irish Government was reportedly relieved, as it had been concerned that it would be left in the lurch if Hogan’s folly was successful, that it would face the same problem on his departure that it now faces now with the prospect of him leaving the role.
But what else does it say about Hogan that he considered giving his application for a new role the priority over the national interest just a couple of months ago?
That’s why an axe is needed: Phil Hogan is not a man to fall on his own sword.