Who’s next for Big Phil’s big job (with its €336k a year)?

Phil Hogan’s vacated EU Trade Commissioner role, with its €336,000-a-year pay packet, it will be a much sought-after job. The Taoiseach would usually decide who the candidate will be but in this coalition Government there is an acceptance that this is a Fine Gael role. However, with the coalition retaining only a small majority there is a belief that it will not be a figure sitting in Dáil Éireann. The following odds have been exclusively calculated by the Mail’s Group Political Editor John Lee and do not expect them to be honoured at your local bookmakers...

2/1 MAIRÉAD MCGUINNESS,

Fine Gael, MEP. She has achieved the feat of being re-elected to the European Parliament on four occasions since 2004. The former broadcaster (below) is articulate and has an unrivalled knowledge of the labyrinthine political alliances in Brussels. She is a Fine Gael stalwart and since that party is in the same Brussels grouping, the European People’s Party, as Ursula von der Leyen she is hot favourite. And no Dáil by-election required.

6/1 SIMON COVENEY,

Fine Gael, Minister for Foreign Affairs. If Leo Varadkar wanted to pull a stroke and rid himself of a challenger while making him believe he was doing him a favour, then Simon is your man. However, Varadkar is not the Charlie Haughey type and he actually relies on the details-man Coveney (right), despite their former rivalry. There is little to indicate that Mr Coveney craves a return to Brussels (he’s a former MEP) and he still wants another tilt at Fine Gael leader when Mr Varadkar moves on.

8/1 CATHERINE DAY,

a former Secretary General of the European Commission. Appointed in 2005 the Dubliner served two terms with President José Manuel Barros and continued with Jean Claude Juncker. As Europe’s former most senior civil servant she already knows the job inside out and, since she is retired, could roll straight into the gig. But in uncertain times for politicians it is unlikely that this will be passed on to a civilian.

14/1, PASCHAL DONOHOE,

Minister for Finance, Fine Gael. There is a precedent set by Bertie Ahern in 2004 when he shifted Charlie McCreevy off to Brussels. Mr McCreevy had become a little too capitalist even for Fianna Fáil’s liking. Though after yet another bruising election in Dublin Central, Mr Donohoe may crave pastures new.

20/1 LEO VARADKAR,

Fine Gael, Tánaiste.There is a lot of speculation in Government that this could happen. But it’s coming from either A) Fine Gael ministers who want to inherit his job or B) Fianna Fáil ministers and TDs anxious to see their bête noir off the domestic scene. Since he is set to be taoiseach in two years time why would he be interested?

33/1 MICHEÁL MARTIN,

Fianna Fáil, Taoiseach. Lots of chatter in Fianna Fáil that Micheál Martin, facing a turbulent time at home, might fancy a highly paid gig in Brussels. Having spent 30 years climbing the pole to the Taoiseach’s office I think it unlikely he would give it up two months in.