MATT COOPER
WE HAVE TO REMAIN REALISTIC
THE Government is facing one of the most difficult weeks imaginable. Whatever it decides will lead to hindsight criticism come January and February from people not in the position of having to make the most momentous decisions about the easing of Covid-19 restrictions.
Tánai st eLeoVaradkar anticipated that yesterday when he said the decisions made now about loosening things up may result in the need for further tighter restrictions in the early months of 2021.
Most of us knew that already, but it may need regular restating as lockdown fatigue leads to less attention being paid to what is said and what needs to be done. So some sympathy or understanding towards government that this is far from easy might not be misplaced.
For example, the Government may have to face down a nervous NPHET, t he public health advisory group, which seemingly remains in favour of retaining Level 5 restrictions in an effort to suppress the Covid-19 virus as much as is possible in the absence of a complete societal shutdown. So-called disregarding of public health advice can be politically dangerous but there are other considerations.
Lobbying
The Government is aware of the lobbying of business interests who, quite reasonably, are fearful that the financial consequences of continued closure or restricted opening are devastating to continued viability. Hundreds of thousands of jobs could be at risk. But those interests may be deliberately overstating their cases and may not be taking the potential public health implications fully into account.
The Government is also cognisant of the financial implications to it of continued depressed economic activity. It means lower tax revenues for it but also much higher expenses as it provides support to the unemployed and tries to keep people in jobs.
There is going to be a finite limit – eventually – to the amount of borrowing it can do.
Loans may be cheaply obtained at present, but the interest rates on debts may be much higher in the future – and heaven help the Government that is left having to increase the tax bills to pay for it all.
The Government also has social consequences to consider. Even if it i s minded to persuading people to stay in their homes for a Christmas lockdown – eschewing contact with others – it knows this will not happen. Few will l eave grandparents on their own on Christmas Day, for example.
There may be a risk involved in hugging Granny but there is also damage caused by not doing so.
On the other hand, people are going to have to travel to do so. The risks of spreading Covid will be increased by that and the consequences for our ( still) creaking hospital systems could be immense, but a popular revolt against any impositions regarded as excessive would be likely too.
The Government also knows people will want to buy things – in person rather than over the internet – during December and that retailers need this income badly. It may be hard to organise but will require longer opening hours for shops to cater for controlled social distancing.
So-called non-essential retailers may have a good point when they argue that they should have been open in recent weeks to allow for this. Look at the organised behaviour in our supermarkets and it is hard to argue that this could not have been replicated elsewhere. Instead we now have the dangers of longer queues and bigger close-contact gatherings because of the latest six-week near- shutdown under Level 5 restrictions.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin was insistent on Monday that the Level 5 measures had worked in bringing down the daily numbers of new Covid cases. That is not a necessarily confirmable claim, even if it is notable that the infection rates per hundred thousand of population are amongst the lowest in the EU.
But it can be argued that the Level 3 measures that were in place had done much of that job anyway and that the costs to everyone of the extra restrictions of Level 5 may not have been justified by the unquantified number of cases that may not have happened because of them. It is notable that while our recent case numbers approached those at the height of the pandemic in the spring, the numbers now requiring hospitalisation or ICU are significantly lower.
Compromise
But that doesn’t mean that the Government can take a chance that the pandemic will not return to that level of virulence and endorse a free-for-all when it comes to the public interacting with each other.
That is why the idea of allowing the pubs to open before 2021 seems a non-runner, no matter how convincingly the publicans argue that they can run responsible and socially distanced bars. There may not be firm statistical evidence to show how many people develop Covid by being with people who, when drinking, get closer to each other and start spraying saliva, but it stands to common sense to believe it must increase the risk.
The suggested compromise of shutting pubs at 10pm doesn’t make such sense either, as it is very possible some will continue to hang around together outdoors in large groups. Surely it would also only encourage people, particularly younger folk, to do so-called ‘prinks’ in reverse? Instead of having a house party before moving to the pub, it’ll happen the other way around.
The publicans are arguing that house parties need to be stopped in such cases, but how is that going to be done? Good luck to the gardaí asked to visit such homes where parties happen on or around Christmas Day.
It’s just another example of how hard it is to do and impose the right thing at this nearimpossible time.