Fianna Fáil rebels back off on Martin leadership putsch
‘We’d look worse than Trump if we took him out now’
THE surge in coronavirus cases has rescued Micheál Martin’s increasingly parlous premiership for the immediate future, senior Fianna Fáil sources believe.
Amidst plummeting poll numbers, Mr Martin’s premiership looked to be in increasing peril in the wake of the claim by the former Fianna Fáil minister Conor Lenihan that the Taoiseach resembled a ‘political corpse’.
A new poll puts the party at 15%, way behind Sinn Féin at 29% and Fine Gael at 28%, according to yesterday’s Irish Mail on Sunday/ Ireland Thinks survey.
However, in the wake of the collapse of the Coalition’s coronavirus strategy, Fianna Fáil rebels have now conceded: ‘We would look worse than Trump if we tried to take him out.’
One source noted: ‘In a strange way he has had the luck of the devil. In 2019 he was rescued by Brexit. Then in 2020 coronavirus saved his bacon. Now, for the moment at least coronavirus has saved him again.
‘He was looking very dithery after Christmas. When senators like Ned O’Sullivan are coming out to back you on Twitter, it is not looking good.’
Another senior party figure said: ‘He has been indemnified for the immediate future. We would look like clowns if we took him on in the middle of the greatest crisis since independence. It would look worse than the antics of the Trump supporters in America.’ Mr Martin is also believed to have been rescued by internal unease within Fianna Fáil over the increasingly hostile criticism by elements of the party of the leader’s intention to stay on into election 2025.
Amid increasingly open declarations of revolt, one senior party figure warned: ‘The problem is that the rebels oversold it. They unnerved the centre ground.
‘Suddenly a leadership challenge became a reality rather than a matter of speculation. Those who are in the middle began to back away.’
Sources also warned that the increasing number of candidates has generated a certain chill noting: ‘Adding Darragh O’Brien was a touch of genius. It was like the time Haughey was under pressure and let it be known that there was a huge list of contenders that would split the party six ways.’
One senior figure warned: ‘Micheál knows his history. He knows too many candidates would spook the middle ground.’
They added: ‘The current list of ministers have started to think a change would be too risky. They are wondering would the “have nots” pose a threat to their seats.’
Another senior Fianna Fáil source said: ‘One key problem is we have too many stalking horses like Jim O’Callaghan and too few actual candidates.’
The background of those who would expect to benefit most from any rebellion has also affected enthusiasm for a wider revolt.
One minister said: ‘The problem with a revolt of the dynasties is that their interests may not be seen to be the same as the new Fianna Fáil arrivals.’
Mr Martin’s main sceptics are, after a series of hirings and sackings, perceived to consist of the Cowen, Calleary and MacSharry
‘The rebels oversold it’ ‘He is getting a little too confident’
old guard and the collective law library dynasty by way of Jim O’Callaghan.
Mr Martin, who is scheduled to remain as Taoiseach until he swaps with Tánaiste Leo Varadkar in December 2022 has become increasingly bullish about leading Fianna Fáil into a fourth election.
But one-party grandee warned: ‘Micheál would need to be careful. He is getting a little too confident. He should be starting to set himself up for a nice little job in Europe or somewhere else.
‘Micheál should not get too comfortable. The clock, as Haughey found near the end, is going to start ticking a lot faster from now.’