ECB warns of July interest rates rise to f ight inf lation
THE European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates as soon as July to stop ‘extremely high’ inflation from becoming entrenched, an ECB board member has warned.
In a frank assessment, Isabel Schnabel said: ‘Talking is no longer enough, we need to act. From today’s perspective, a rate increase in July is possible in my view.’
There could even be as many as three rises before the end of the year.
The signal comes less than two weeks after ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank was likely to end its bond purchase scheme in early autumn and raise rates before the end of the year.
The bond purchase scheme – which was introduced to stimulate the economy – will have to end before any interest rate rises and could come as soon as the end of next month, said Ms Schnabel, the ECB’s head of market operations.
Conservatives on the ECB’s 25-member governing council have called on the central bank to curb its ultra-easy policy to combat inflation, according to reports.
Inflation hit 7.5% in the eurozone last month, nearly four times the ECB’s target. Even underlying price growth, which filters out volatile energy and food prices, is now approaching 4%, suggesting that high price growth could linger even if oil prices slip back. The ECB last raised rates in 2011 and has kept its benchmark deposit rate, now at minus 0.5%, in negative territory since 2014.
Markets currently predict price rate rises of almost 1% for the rest of the year, indicating that increases are expected in each policy meeting from July onwards.
The ECB will next meet on June 9, when the asset purchases are set to be ended, followed by a meeting on July 21.
Ms Schnabel said she did not expect the eurozone to fall into stagflation – a period of zero growth coupled with high inflation – but said the ECB’s main role was to fight off rapid price growth and not to prop up the economy.
She added, however, that the ECB would act on any unwarranted increase in the spread of yields between the bloc’s core and periphery.
With inflation at record highs and still rising, the ECB has been cautiously unwinding support for months and policymakers are now talking about the possibility of an interest rate rise – the first in over a decade.
Just over two weeks ago Ms Lagarde said: ‘If the situation continues as predicted at the moment, there is a strong likelihood that rates will be hiked before the end of the year. How much, how many times, remains to be seen and will be data dependent.’
The problem now for homeowners is how to shield themselves from rate rises which are ‘inevitable’ according to housing campaigner David Hall, of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation.
He also called on the ECB and the Government to be open with people.
‘The Government and the Minister for Finance should be honest with everybody and engage with the ECB and say, “Stop all the rumours, they’re very unhelpful”.
‘We’ve had a horrific couple of years of Covid, now we’ve got people with a cost of living exposure, let’s cut to the chase and tell us the plan. There needs to be an element of leadership and honesty now and transparency to give people the heads-up.’
He said mortgage-holders should seek independent advice on how to protect themselves from rate hikes.
‘It’s very, very important that nobody who has a tracker mortgage with Ulster Bank panics without professional advice in changing banks.
‘If you voluntarily move your mortgage away from Ulster Bank before your loan gets transferred, you will lose your tracker. If you wait, your tracker stays intact. Your tracker is fine but, obviously, rates could rise. The point is everybody should seek independent advice now in relation to what options there are.’
‘Talking is no longer enough’ ‘Give people the heads-up’