Is there anyone in unionism who is prepared to leave the time warp and instead work for the common good?
THE big story from the election north of the border is that nationalists are in the driving seat for the first time ever. However, the other main takeaway from the count is that, yet again, those who espouse remaining tied to Westminster are so divided that they continue to hand the initiative to a more coherent nationalist voice, mainly articulated by Sinn Féin. And also to the Alliance Party, which is picking off soft unionist voters.
Acknowledging the difficulties facing unionism as the votes were being counted, DUP Jeffrey Donaldson commented that a ‘divided unionism does not win votes’.
In a rapidly changing world, politicians of a unionist persuasion are struggling to both lead and represent their supporters.
For me, there a number of reasons for this.
Firstly, many unionist politicians are stuck in a time warp, almost exclusively concentrating on political and constitutional issues, rather than dealing with the breadand-butter matters which affect people in the daily lives.
For instance, the DUP and the more hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) try to outdo each other in their rhetoric surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol. The recent anti-protocol rallies during the campaign are a case in point.
The TUV and the DUP were doing their best to show who was the ‘most sound’ on opposition to the protocol. And yet, most of the public are not convinced that the arrangements – agreed with the EU on Brexit – are as negative as they are being portrayed by the DUP and TUV. They see how well the Republic has done because of the attachment to Brussels.
Difficulties
Again, in unionism, history seems to be repeating itself. Previously, Ulster Unionist Party leaders, such as David Trimble and Reg Empey, were spooked by the rantings of the late Ian Paisley Sr. Nowadays, the leader of the once-hardline DUP, Jeffrey Donaldson, has had to constantly peer into his rear-view mirror at the vociferous TUV leader, Jim Allister, whom he feels will benefit from any wavering on opposition to the protocol.
Secondly, by harping on about perceived protocol difficulties, they are playing into the hands of Sinn Féin, which is articulating the need for a border poll.
Sinn Féin, up to Brexit, has always been against anything to do with the EU. But once the Tories capitulated to the hardliners such as Nigel Farage by proposing Brexit, the Shinners saw that as their opportunity to appeal to more of the middle ground and to mild unionists, who are not convinced that Brexit is a good thing for Northern Ireland.
Many unionists do not believe that their future will be more secure and more prosperous without some ties to the EU.
Hence a move by mild unionists to the more realistic Alliance Party. I believe that Sinn Féin, by siding with opponents against Brexit, including all of the rest of Irish nationalism, have become a more palatable voting option for a wider audience in Northern Ireland. Ironically, by exaggerating the problems of the protocol, the DUP has, in my view, made the argument for a border poll more persuasive.
Thirdly, the clear indication by DUP leaders before the count that they would not countenance going into government with a Sinn Féin First Minister was a huge own goal. All it did was garner more support for Sinn Féin from within the wider nationalist community, to the detriment of the SDLP vote. In fairness to Donaldson, he was caught between a rock and a hard place on that matter, in that no matter which way he went, he’d be politically crucified, especially by the TUV.
Finally, the main unionist parties have not moved away from the perception that they are ideologically driven, from a religious point of view.
Many voters in the North look askance at how socially diverse and modern the Republic has become in recent years.
Demagogues
The age-old accusation, regularly directed by demagogues like Ian Paisley Sr, at the Republic for being supposedly ‘priest-ridden’ and directed from the Vatican is certainly nowhere near the reality nowadays.
Many in the North cannot support politicians who are so socially conservative. For many, Northern Ireland can still be a ‘cold place’, from a diversity point of view. The sometimes hardline messages coming from the DUP on social issues are a turn-off for many younger voters, who are turning their attention to a more liberal and relevant Alliance Party. UUP leader Doug Beattie put it very well when he said ‘angry negative unionism is turning people off’ and driving voters towards more reasonable voices of parties such as Alliance.
While nationalism, in the guise of Sinn Féin, is moving forward with confidence, and the middle ground has a happy home in the Alliance Party, unionism is a sorry sight.
No-one really knows what their main parties stand for any more, except for their unrelenting support for hardline Brexit and their old-fashioned positions on social issues. Added to that, they refuse to play second fiddle to a nationalist First Minister, even though they would expect nationalists to do so if the shoe was on the other foot.
History
All in all, it seems the next few months will be filled with torturous negotiations to try to get the Executive and institutions back up and running. While the general public most likely would wish this to happen sooner or later, it seems to me that until unionism, and especially the DUP, changes its stance on a number of fronts, we will have to wait a bit longer for some form of government to be put in place in Northern Ireland. The longer unionism takes to come to terms with the new political reality, the more it plays into the hands of Sinn Féin and a resurgent Alliance Party.
I don’t envy Donaldson’s Hobson’s choice. He’s damned if he goes into government, and damned if he doesn’t. Will he hold out in the forlorn hope that Boris will give unionists a fig leaf on the protocol? Will he resign his Westminster seat?
Will he play for more time, until another election is called in six months’ time? That, in particular, could blow up in his face badly.
Sometimes, politicians have to make decisions which may not be in the best interests of their political party, but are best for the common good. This is the choice facing Donaldson. Whichever he decides will determine his place in history.