RURAL IRELAND ON THE WARPATH
Government in thrall to Green ideologues
Has the Coalition burnt its bridges with country voters? We tot up the numbers
WITH its move on emissions reductions, coupled with the war on turf, the Government parties may have signed their death warrant with rural Ireland.
And if they have, just how much damage could be inflicted on them in the next general election?
The antagonism all began with Shane Ross, whose attack on drink-driving enraged a population that feels neglected and patronised by an urban elite. Now the
Eamon Ryan regime has further enraged rural voters.
A full-scale war over turf was narrowly averted but the scars remain. Rural Ireland squints suspiciously at a Government in thrall to Green ideologues who won’t let them farm, shoot, hunt, fish, cut turf, burn turf, build houses on their own land, or drain their land when their houses flood.
They are watching and they are weighing up the advantages of Sinn Féin or a Rural Independent alternative.
Here we survey the 94 seats across 22 rural constituencies. In election 2020, Fianna Fáil had 26 seats, Fine Gael had 20 and the Greens had three. The remaining 45 seats consisted of 21 for Sinn Féin, 19 for Independents, three for Labour and two for the Social Democrats. The Government’s then majority of five seats lay – significantly – in rural Ireland. And if you think Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael can’t be kicked out of rural Ireland, consider the Cork SouthWest precedent.
Rural Cork South-West used to be the most conservative constituency in the country, dutifully returning two Fine Gael and one Fianna Fáil TD every time.
Once every 20 years or so, Fianna Fáil might win two seats but that would be it.
The apogee of old values was in 2011 when Fine Gael missed out on securing all three seats by a handful of votes. Now, despite running a strong candidate in Tim Lombard, the constituency of Fine Gael’s spiritual leader Michael Collins has no FG seat, while FF is clinging on.
If Cork South-West can fall, how then can the rest survive?
One of the great sayings of Irish folklore is Oliver Cromwell’s watchword that the dispossessed could go to hell or to Connacht.
Traditionally Connacht has been a haven for the conservative parties. But in 2020, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael barely kept a foothold there.
Could it now be the case that Connacht – and indeed large swathes of the country – could become hell for the old civil war parties?
Certainly, the signs are not good, and an increasingly tense set of rural deputies know it.
surprise, especially if Roscom- mon-Galway Independent Michael Fitzmaurice puts together a rural party.
Fine Gael will lose out. Fianna Fáil’s James O’Connor and Labour’s Sean Sherlock will be in a desperate battle with the second Sinn Féin candidate for the last seat. We’ll be charitable and say the two establishment candidates will prevail. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 1, LAB 1, IND 1
CORK NORTH-WEST ELECTION 2020:
FF 2, FG 1 Usually almost as unchanging as Cork South-West but not this time. Sinn Féin’s Liadh Ní Riada will take out one of the Fianna Fáil team.
Fine Gael’s Michael Creed, should he not be an MEP by then, will barely see off an Independent, thanks to Fianna Fáil transfers. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1
DONEGAL ELECTION 2020 RESULT:
FF 1, FG 1, SF 2, IND 1 If the national tide is still with Sinn Féin, it could take three seats here. Fine Gael is in nochance saloon as a Mica candidate will see off any successor to Joe McHugh. FF may just about survive at the expense of the durable Independent Thomas Pringle, but it won’t be pretty. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 3, IND 1
GALWAY EAST ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 1, IND 1 Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are under intense pressure here. We are going for another Cork South-West/ Roscommon-Galway phenomenon. A second strong Independent candidate (and we have a good idea who that will be too) and Sinn Féin together will take out the dying civil war parties. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: SF 1, IND 2
GALWAY WEST ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, IND 2 This is a constituency where Fine Gael has traditionally struggled. A swing sees it gone. Sinn Féin will pick up two. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 2, IND 2
KERRY ELECTION 2020: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, IND 2
If the tide is with Sinn Féin, a second seat is inevitable here. But who will lose? We suspect Fianna Fáil is established enough for Norma Foley to hold on. It could come down to a struggle between Independent Danny Healy-Rae and Fine Gael’s Brendan Griffin, above. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 2, IND 2
KILDARE SOUTH ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, IND 1
A Sinn Féin surge (plus a lot of available Green Party votes) means one of the establishment parties must go. As the (Fianna Fáil) Ceann Comhairle is reelected, Fine Gael is the one in trouble. The party has been seatless in Kildare South before. It will be again. RURAL REVOLT RESULT FF 1, SF 2, IND 1
LAOIS-OFFALY ELECTION 2020: FF 2, FG 1, SF 1, IND 1
This is the Fianna Fáil heartland but not if the revolution is coming. A Sinn Féin gain together with Independent Carol Nolan will leave Fianna Fáil’s Sean Fleming and Fine Gael’s Charlie Flanagan (if he’s not an MEP) fighting it out for the last seat. On a toss of a coin, we decide that Fine Gael survives. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FG 1, FF 1, SF 2, IND 1
LIMERICK COUNTY ELECTION 2020: FF 1, FG 1, IND 1
The Civil War old guard’s solitary triumph. Fianna Fáil will attempt to detach Independent Richard O’Donoghue from the herd, but O’Donoghue may not be able to hold back the tide. RURAL REVOLT RESULT FF 1, FG 1, SF 1
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH ELECTION 2020: FF 2, FG 1, SF 1
Election 2020 was a rare Fianna Fáil success with two seats. Not any more. One of the two will go and Robert Troy will not be sleeping easily when it comes to the wiles of Joe Flaherty. Out of sentiment we will go for former Independent TD Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran to return rather than a second Sinn Féin seat. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, IND 1
MAYO ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 2, SF 1 It was a conventional enough result in 2020 but under a rural revolt that won’t stick. A Sinn Féin surge means the county secures a replacement for Jerry Cowley’s lost Independent seat and two Sinn Féin seats. That means there’s space for only one civil war party. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 2, IND 1
MEATH EAST ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 1, SF 1 A barely rural constituency is the worst of both worlds for the Coalition, with a Sinn Féin urban surge plus a rural revolt. On a bad day, Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne loses out in another Sinn Féin gain. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FG 1, SF 2
MEATH WEST
ELECTION 2020: FG 1, SF 1, AONTÚ 1 The vote for Fine Gael’s Damien English was already dangerously low. If it dips any lower, Sinn Féin will gain a second seat, joining Aontú’s Peadar Tóibín in a ‘shock’. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: SF 2, AONTÚ 1
ROSCOMMON-GALWAY
ELECTION 2020: SF 1, IND 2 This is a civil war party-free zone and it will stay that way. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: SF 1, IND 2
SLIGO-LEITRIM ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, IND 1 A SF surge should bring a second seat in this traditionally republican constituency. The real interest lies in Fianna Fáil’s Marc MacSharry. If he leaves Micheál Martin’s party and runs as Independent Fianna Fáil, he could become the new Neil Blaney. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: SF 2, IND 2
TIPPERARY ELECTION 2020: FF 1, SF 1, LAB 1, IND 2
It may have lost its status as the Independent Valhalla in 2020, with the loss of its third Independent seat, but even with a rural revolt, Independents keep two. Sinn Féin to win a second seat at the expense of Labour as Fine Gael transfers see Fianna Fáil retain its sole seat. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 2, IND 2
WATERFORD
ELECTION 2020: FF 1, SF 1, IND 1, GREEN 1 Sinn Féin likely to gain one from the Greens. Fianna Fáil to survive – barely. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 2, IND 1
WEXFORD ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, LAB 1, IND 1 If the revolution train is on its way, it’s goodbye to Labour no matter what. Fine Gael, though, has been busy losing two seats for a decade. If the mood is right, former Independents 4 Change TD Mick Wallace, left, might shock with a glorious comeback RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FF 1, SF 2, IND 2
WICKLOW ELECTION 2020:
FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, GREEN 1, SOCIAL DEMOCRAT 1 Sinn Féin will surely gain a second seat here but at whose expense? In the absence of a designated Independent, the Green Party might catch a break. Instead the second Sinn Féin seat would be accompanied by a case of political murder most foul as Social Democrat Jennifer Whitmore, right, sees off Fianna Fáil Health Minister Stephen Donnelly. RURAL REVOLT RESULT: FG 1, SF 2, SOCIAL DEMOCRAT 1, GREEN 1