Russia’s bear on the prowl
Massive assault force drives towards border
RUSSIAN forces on Ukraine’s border have daubed assault vehicles with “invasion stripes” heightening fears of all-out war.
The Irish Mirror can also reveal Russia will soon have 107,000 troops in the region.
It is far more than previously thought and emerged in leaked documents that include shocking details on Moscow’s firepower.
Ukrainian military estimates of the advancing force include 1,300 battle tanks, 3,700 drones, 1,300 artillery and mortar units and 380 multiple launch rocket systems.
Yesterday in Astrakhan, 350 miles from the front line, Russian BTR 80 armoured vehicles painted with invasion stripes were spotted heading in convoy to the railway station. Military experts have drawn attention to similar stripes on tanks used by the Soviet Army during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. They help identify vehicles to friendly forces.
Estimates of Putin’s force were revealed in papers leaked to the Mirror by Kyiv sources after Moscow claimed it is being “provoked”.
They also reveal Russia has deployed “sniper squads” to pick off Ukrainian infantry dug in.
It is thought Ukraine has 100,000 troops, many of them taught by British and US forces.
A paper estimates by the end of the month, Russia will have deployed a further 26 battle groups to reinforce the “existing” 28, as well as artillery, air defence and reconnaissance units.
The document also warns Putin might attack in response to a predicted attempt by Ukraine to liberate pro-russian occupied areas in Donetsk and Luhansk.
HOW DID IT COME TO THIS?
In 2014 after the liberal Maidan revolution in Ukraine, Putin became nervous Europe and NATO would soon be on Russia’s doorstep.
His GRU spooks armed pro-russian separatists in areas of East Ukraine, sparking a guerilla war. Russia also annexed Crimea overnight.
Bitter fighting in East Ukraine has killed 14,000 in six years and it is possible Putin believes the time is right to attack and put large parts of Ukraine under Kremlin rule.
HOW DOES RUSSIA JUSTIFY THE BUILD-UP
Russia’s ongoing military action in East Ukraine plays into its narrative it is protecting pro-russian civilians in the region, who have been scared by GRU spooks warning “Nazi Europe” is returning, in a throwback to the Second World War.
Though this clearly looks like an invasion force, Putin may use the excuse of rushing in to protect his people whilst his troops are supposed to be on “exercise”.
WHAT IS PUTIN THINKING?
There are different theories on why Putin is behaving like this – including he has been secretly ill and needs to reaffirm his position as Russia’s strongman.
He occasionally disappears from public sight and occasionally has a very podgy face, as if having had long-term treatment. He’s in his 70s and is desperate to expand Russia to its former USSR glory.
Putin is also paranoid if Ukraine gets NATO membership one day, that means the alliance is on his doorstep. He would also like to take over Ukraine or large parts of it and appear the strongman in Russia to improve flagging domestic ratings.
Perhaps Putin believes the time is right for action against Ukraine with Europe in disarray because of the Covid-19 pandemic and Brexit.
His military doctrine is all about piling pressure on other countries, disrupting them domestically to make them appear weak whilst constantly testing their resolve. It could also be a test of new US President Joe Biden’s willingness to challenge Russia.
COULD NATO & THE UK GET DRAGGED IN?
Although it is not a NATO member, Ukraine is an ally of the US and the UK.
British and US forces have helped train Ukraine forces in recent years and the UK Parachute Regiment last year practised jumping into battle in Ukraine along with local troops.
UK forces are in the country helping to monitor the situation and the RAF has sent Typhoon fighter jets to Romania to bolster the region.
Two US warships are heading to the Black Sea
and Russia has warned America to stay away. Sources in the military say there are many meetings taking place about how to handle the situation if Putin invades.
It is unlikely he would go beyond the threshold that would drag NATO into a war but that depends on what red lines countries would impose.
If it is “do not invade” beyond the front line then Western troops could find themselves being sent to help Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?
At some point along the front line there will likely be a larger flare-up than usual, almost certainly sparked by Russia.
This will be the precursor for a large escalation and a possible invasion, perversely justified by Moscow as a necessary mission to protect Russian people against Ukraine. Experts believe if this happens Putin will order his troops in but it is possible this will be with limitations.
Of course, anything is possible but as soldiers and civilians die, Putin will watch keenly for America’s reaction.
It is likely he would stop, having taken swathes of territory, just short of justifying US intervention.