Brexit transitional negotiations

some of its provisions would touch on the competences of Member States under the Treaties.

This would require the unanimous agreement of all national (and, in some countries, regional) parliaments as well.

The EU procedures for negotiating an FTA are well established — and lengthy! First, the Commission holds a public consultation and conducts an assessment of the impact of any such deal on the EU and the other country. It then seeks a negotiating mandate from the Council which authorises the Commission to begin negotiations.

Trade negotiations can take many years. Once an agreement is reached, further time is required for ratification by the EU and by the Member States. Hence, Irish negotiators must focus on the nature of the ‘transitional arrangements’ which will cover the period between Brexit itself and the entry into force of this FTA and which could easily last four, five years or more.

The Tusk draft guidelines are clear that, if the benefits of the Union acquis including access to the single market are extended to the UK during this period, the existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, and enforcement instruments and structures must continue to apply.

One question is whether the UK would remain a member of the EU Customs Union during this transitional period. This would be desirable from an Irish standpoint. The UK market would continue to be shielded from lowcost competition by high agricultural tariffs and the UK would continue to be a high-price market for Irish exports.

The drawback from the UK side is that remaining part of the EU Customs Union would prevent it from participating in FTAs with third countries once Brexit has taken place. However, these agreements will also take some years to complete, so the UK might be willing to delay leaving the Customs Union for some years. The EU could argue that this would even strengthen its hand in its FTA negotiations with third countries.

Of course, if the UK wants ultimately to pursue a cheap food policy, this would only be a stay of execution. But it illustrates how much is at stake in the negotiations that will take place over the next 18 months.

Alan Matthews is Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy at Trinity College Dublin