Harvest yields will be down by 600,000t predict Teagasc
Grain output forecast to fall 27pc
OVERALL grain output this harvest will be back 27pc or almost 600,000 tonnes, a Teagasc survey has forecast.
The Teagasc crop analysis estimates that this year’s harvest will produce 1.75m tonnes of barley, wheat and oats. This is back substantially from the 2.35m tonnes harvested in 2017.
The extent of the reduction will pile further pressure on the compound feed sector which has been struggling to meet unprecedented demand from livestock farmers due to the collapse in grass growth as a result of the drought.
Michael Hennessy of Teagasc said the harvest forecast was based on a crop-by-crop analysis across all the major grain growing regions.
He attributed the fall-off in yields to a combination of drought, poor sowing conditions this spring, and an 11pc contraction in the area sown to cereal crops for the 2018 harvest.
Yields from winter barley have been back around 0.5t/ ac this harvest at an average of 3.5 t/ac. Similarly, yields of winter oats are also back 0.5t/ ac to 3.0t/ac on average.
Mr Hennessy said overall output reductions of this year’s magnitude had not been seen since the poor harvests of 1993, 1994 and 1995.
Despite the fall-off in yields, he predicted that returns for growers should generally remain in line with last year.
He said that grain prices have increased by around €20/t on 2017, with merchants having to give €170-175/t to secure barley and wheat compared to the €148/t (including bonuses) which was generally paid 12 months ago.
Mr Hennessy also noted that straw prices have increased by close to 70pc, more than compensating for the drop in yield.
In terms of harvest progress, the winter barley crop has been more or less wrapped up at this stage.
The winter oats harvest is progressing, with crop yields varying between 2.7 t/ac and 3.2t/ac. While most crops are averaging over 3.0t/ac in south Tipperary and bushelling at 54-55kph, yields are failing to make the 3.0t/ac average in the midlands.
Oilseed rape crops in the south are averaging 1.7/ac and coming in at 9-10pc moisture.
The winter wheat harvest is expected to kick off this week, with crops of the French variety Seskin coming in particularly early. Some crops of spring barley in the midlands could also be cut by the weekend.
Demand for straw remains very strong. Prices for 4x4 bales of barley straw range from €22/ bale ex-field for established customers to €25-30/bale for new clients. This is up from €14-15/ bale in 2017.
Meanwhile, the Irish Grain Growers Group (IGGG) has called for a significant easing of 4pc cut-off on screenings for premium food grade crops such as malting and distilling barley.