Lamb prices set to shatter records in weeks ahead

Hoggets are up €40/hd on last year as numbers fall and demand rises

Lamb prices are poised to shatter records this year, with industry insiders citing strong demand and dwindling supplies as the driving forces behind the unprecedented surge.

With one processor quoting over €9/kg for spring lambs, many in the industry are speculating that prices could climb even higher. It will come as some relief to sheep farmers battling persistently unsettled weather conditions.

Lamb prices are set to break €200/ hd this week, over €40/hd more than last year’s prices, as Easter demand kicks in, with one industry source stating: “Prices are now in outer space and the trade is in a place where it has never gone before.”

Bord Bia data shows that average prices across the EU and the UK are the strongest ever recorded, as the European sheep population has declined in recent years amid growing demand for sheep meat.

Meanwhile, processor base quotes for last year’s lamb (hogget) in Ireland currently range from €8.20-€8.30/ kg, giving an average farmer-quoted price on a 24kg carcass of €196.80€199.20/hd.

For those with quality assured lamb you can add another €2.40-€4.80/hd, bringing the overall quoted price to €199.20-€204/hd.

This is significantly ahead of this time last year, when base quotes in the run-up to Easter for hogget ranged from €6.55-€6.70kg, giving producers a return of €157.20-€160.80/hd before any quality assurance payments.

This means hogget prices are also around €40/hd above this time last year.

With Easter just around the corner and supermarkets looking for new-season spring lamb, those stronger hogget prices have forced factories to open their quotes for this year’s lambs significantly above last year’s best offers.

Quality

Irish Country Meats, the country’s largest sheep processor, is offering €9.00+20c/kg quality assurance for lamb.

This quote is €1.30-€1.45/kg above last year’s best processor base of €7.55€7.70/kg.

This potentially puts an additional €26.65-€29.58/hd, not counting any bonus payments, into farmers’ pockets above the best 2023 prices.

ICSA President Sean McNamara said these strong prices are “long overdue and reflect the reality that the

industry can pay farmers properly when they have no choice”.

He said he is seeing deals for hogget being done at €8.60/kg, with spring lambs making €9.50/kg and cull ewes selling at €3.70-€3.80/kg.

The strong trade, he said, will last until June when “this year’s lamb will become available in numbers”.

The European sheep population fell from 100 million in 2010 to just 60 million by mid-2022 and last year, EU sheep meat production fell by 6pc following drought across many Mediterranean countries.

On the consumption side, religious events such as Easter, Ramadan and Eid are keeping a floor under demand.