Wales face fight to avoid ‘Group of Death’

SCOTLAND’S emphatic victory over Wales last Saturday may have much bigger ramifications for the likes of England and New Zealand after it opened the door to the very realistic possibility of a ‘Pool of Death’ at the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

The tournament is more than two years away, but the Six Nations is pivotal to how May 10’s World Cup draw will be formatted given it is the last chance for the world ranking to alter, with no international rugby scheduled from the final round of the Six Nations on March 17 until the draw.

The 29-13 result saw Vern Cotter’s side leapfrog their Celtic rivals as well as South Africa and move into fifth place in World Rugby’s rankings, with the Welsh dropping down to seventh.

Having started the Six Nations with two losses and one victory, Wales have lost 1.39 ranking points to see them fall below the Springboks and the Scots. With the visit of Ireland to the Principality Stadium up next, and a testing trip to France, the prospect of losing four matches in this year’s Six Nations is a real one.

Should Wales lose their remaining two fixtures and lose a similar number of points, they would drop behind both eighth-placed France but also ninth-placed Argentina, dropping them to the third tier of World Cup seedings.

That would not only be cause for concern for Wales, but also for the top seeds of New Zealand, England, Australia and Ireland. The top four look safe unless Ireland suffer an almighty collapse.

Those four teams will go into the World Cup draw in pot one, with Scotland and South Africa looking set to be in pot two. The rest of the pot will be completed by two of three nations, with Wales, France and Argentina vying not to be the team that drops down to pot three. As Argentina do not play again before the draw, their ranking total of 79.91 is the benchmark for others, which gives Wales a buffer of 1.25 and 0.66 for France. Wales’ potential ‘Pool of Death’: England/Ireland, South Africa, Wales, Fiji, USA. Wales’ potential best draw: Ireland/England, France, Wales, Canada, Romania.