We can all imagine a Brexit reversal – but sadly that dream is almost over
THE main headline screamed out from the front page of ‘Le Figaro’, France’s centre-right daily newspaper: “And what if the United Kingdom did not leave Europe …”
That would be music to Irish ears and was reflected in the wildly optimistic comments by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar as he arrived at his first leaders’ summit. But things are far from being that simple and there are huge obstacles to a Brexit reversal on both the EU and UK sides of the equation.
True, the ‘Le Figaro’ report followed a host of senior EU figures telling Britain over a two-day leaders’ summit in Brussels, utterly dominated by Brexit, that it was not too late to do a re-think, precisely one year after British voters opted to “Leave”.
European Council President Donald Tusk got Europe-wide coverage for shamelessly looting John Lennon’s ‘Imagine’ to answer whether he believed Brexit might be reversible. “You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one,” the former Polish prime minister said.
President Tusk’s comment echoed new French President Emmanuel Macron’s injunction to Britain: “The door remains open.” Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he hoped Britain can stay closely linked to the EU single market and within the customs union. “I hate Brexit from every angle,” the Dutch Prime Minister said.
But that benign view of a possible Brexit reversal is still far from universal in EU circles. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was far from being effusive. “I prefer not to have illusions so as not to lose them,” he remarked tartly. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel was quite hostile. “It’s time for action and certainty. Not dreams and uncertainty.”
That comment echoed another pre-summit view from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who spoke of the need to plan the future of the other 27 member states – in an EU minus Britain. The Belgian and German leaders’ comments spoke to a growing mood across mainland Europe that the die is cast, Britain has decided, and it’s time to plan the future on that basis.
At the leaders’ summit centre a senior Brussels diplomat was keen to puncture all Brexit reversal illusions. President Tusk’s dream comments were dismissed as “bizarre”; the Taoiseach’s hopes were only to be expected given the huge impact on Ireland; and the Dutch Prime Minister was reflecting on the loss of an important EU ally.
There is a growing view that EU life must go on with or without Britain. Any Brexit reversal would come at a price which London would not, or could not, meet. There is also the suspicion among other EU governments that Britain’s terminal divisions and indecision over Europe must be dealt with definitively.
Things do not look too certain from the UK side either. Granted, the messy outcome of the June 10 general election has changed the Brexit landscape. Even during Theresa May’s ill-starred campaign, the answer to questions about a potential Brexit reversal would have been a block capital “NO”. Now the game plan’s changed.
Yet just what that election said about Brexit is still being hotly debated. The result did not appear to endorse a “hard Brexit”. But the most honest assessment is that the outcome was not really about Brexit but was instead a rejection of uncaring government in an era of continuing austerity.
The view in London is Theresa May might only last weeks with her wafer-thin majority and a host of plotting Conservative rivals. But she might totter on for a bit, perhaps even up to the end of the Brexit process in late 2018. A longer survival span is based on the assumption few others want to take Britain through the Brexit wringer. But another British election soon, leaving Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn heading a government, is a very real possibility.
Still, given Labour’s persistent divisions about the EU, with historic roots as deep as those in the Conservative Party, it is far from clear what Corbyn as prime minister would do.
The most hopeful scenario among some “Remain” people in Britain is the Brexit deal terms could be poor and a far cry from things promised by “Leave” advocates last year. That could see another British referendum on the exit terms reversing the vote of June 23, 2016.
But there again, you would be talking about re-entry negotiations which could take still more time and give rise to further divisions among the EU 27 and within British politics.
There is one final caveat which speaks to the possibility of Brexit reversal. It is the huge financial loss to EU coffers of Britain’s departure and the huge economic loss in British trade. Thus far these economics have been drowned out by atavistic gut politics. But if these informed political debate, we might be on to something.
In summary the kindest assessment of the chance for a Brexit reversal is it is “possible but most unlikely”.