Brexit papers risk leaving Ireland in firing line between Britain and the EU
THE headline pulled no punches.
“Britain’s inexcusable dithering over Brexit,” it screamed. “Prime Minister Theresa May needs a plan. Now.”
The editorial from international newswire Bloomberg earlier this week was timely, for it came within 24 hours of the first in a series of papers from the UK in which London attempted to set out its post-Brexit vision.
It has been long overdue. The dithering theme has been a constant over the last 14 months.
To the frustration of many, the British government has appeared to be consumed more by political infighting, ill discipline and bluster than any focused attempt at setting out how it plans to extricate itself from its 40-year EU relationship.
Other than bold statements about leaving the customs union and the single market, details of its post-Brexit vision, and how to mitigate the myriad problems posed by the referendum, had been in short supply.
The fact that Britain has finally shown its hand, as such, with the publication of the position papers on customs and the Border and Northern Ireland issues, has been widely welcomed, although the response from politicians and experts to the proposals has been lukewarm, if not in some cases downright dismissive.
Britain’s ambition to be able to devise new trade deals with non-EU countries while in a transition period was dismissed as fantasy by one EU figure.
Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney welcomed the paper on Irish/ Northern Irish affairs, but warned that elements were unworkable, that Ireland would not allow itself to become a pawn in the Brexit battle between the EU and UK, and that Ireland has to prepare for a worst-case scenario. It was a rather gloomy assessment.
For Stephen Donnelly, Fianna Fáil’s Brexit spokesman, the papers merely restated the British position of wanting access to the EU market without wanting to abide by the key rules.
“I can’t find anything in the paper on customs that moves the argument forward,” he said. “In fact, Tuesday’s paper moves the discussion backwards, as it’s just a restatement of the opening Brexiteer position, which is we want all of the advantages of the single market and the customs union, and none of the disadvantages.”
As for the paper on the Border, it now leaves Ireland firmly in the firing line between the EU and UK, he believes – a situation he brands as “dangerous”.
“They appear to be restating that they want full access to the single market, full access to the customs union, while not being in either. And if they can’t have that, then they say this appalling vista, which we all agree we don’t want, is going to happen. It’s very clever politics in a way. It says if a Border goes up, it’s not us the British, it’s you, Europe. You’re putting it up.” David Phinnemore, professor at the School of History, Anthropology, Philisophy and Politics at Queen’s University, welcomes the factthattheUK government acknowledges that Brexit will impact the Good Friday Agreement, the common travel area and Border.
But he agrees that the UK is essentially pushing the Border back to the EU, as Brussels’ problem to solve.
“Ultimately, the EU wants to protect its market, therefore it’s going to be its Border that is going to be implemented and what the paper does is highlight that fact,” he adds.
“Rather than the British playing a constructive role in working out how that’s going to be done, the British have put a few ideas on the table and then stepped back, and said it’s your problem Brussels, not ours.”
Blair Horan, a member of the IIEA’s UK Working Group, believes Britain may not have the negotiating strength it thinks it has. Some 44pc of the UK’s exports go to the EU, while just 7pc go in the other direction, he says.
“Trade bargaining is about power, at the end of the day, in terms of who’s the stronger party, and that indicates that the EU is the stronger party.”
But crucially, he also makes the point it’s easier for the British to argue and accept an open Border, than it is for the EU.
“The risk is lower for them [the UK],” he says. “It’s the UK that’s likely to sign free trade agreements with countries the EU would be more wary of. In a sense the UK is not at risk from stuff coming into the UK from the European Union, but the EU is at risk from free trade deals the UK might sign in the future.”
So now that we have the papers, where do we go from here?
“At least the papers are on the table now. There are certainly unrealistic aspects, but they’re a basis for discussion,” says Mr Horan.
For Mr Donnelly, the outlook is more pessimistic.
“I think it’s beginning to permeate into the general awareness in Ireland, because [to many] this whole thing has been abstract, high level and happening elsewhere, it’s beginning to hit people, that we are looking at border controls, that we are looking at WTO tariffs, at not selling any beef, any cheddar cheese.”