All parties want to spread the money... the problem is there’s not enough of it to go around

Continuing our series examining Budget 2018 and its fault lines, Cormac McQuinn looks at the battle to prioritise some social welfare payments

HIKES to pensions and social protection benefits created last year’s ‘Battle of the Budget’, featuring two heavyweights – Fianna Fáil’s Willie O’Dea and thenminister Leo Varadkar.

But with less than two weeks to go to Budget 2018, there’s been little heavy artillery fired in the form of demands for spending boosts for those covered by the Social Protection net.

That’s because all sides know the Government is cash-strapped, and broad increases to welfare payments are horrendously expensive. They have to choose their priorities carefully.

The current minister, Regina Doherty, has offered few specifics about what she’s seeking, other than to say top of her list is measures to alleviate child poverty, and confirmation she is seeking a €5-a-week pension increase.

Mr O’Dea sparked last year’s war by demanding that increase for 2017.

Mr Varadkar pulled off something of a coup when he announced, just days before Budget 2017, that he wanted benefit hikes across the board.

Ultimately he got them, so while Mr O’Dea could claim something of a victory on pensions, the now-Taoiseach could say he secured increased payments to 800,000 other people as well, including those with disabilities and carers.

This year, as Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe weighs up the various options amid the constrained funds available, the one thing that seems almost certain is that pensioners will get their fiver a week.

All sides want it, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil both promising in their manifestos ahead of election 2016 increases of €5 a week in each budget over a full five-year government term.

This would cost an estimated €151m for a full year, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the payment is delayed, as it was until March in 2017. After all, the unallocated fiscal space for new measures across all departments has been put at just €350m.

Mr Donohoe has confirmed the Christmas bonus for welfare recipients will be paid this year, but will wait until Budget day to say how much it will amount to.

Don’t be surprised if there is some wiggle room for spending at Social Protection as the unemployment rate continues to drop, meaning less is being spent on job-seekers’ payments. Fianna Fáil has yet to tie down its social protection demands. Some in the party are pushing for €5 a week for the pension and the same sum for wide-ranging benefits increases, along the lines of what happened this year. However, job-seekers’ allowance would be unlikely to be included, due to an acceptance that there’s limited funds available. A Fianna Fáil source said social protection measures that could be improved for “small money” included the school meals programme and the free travel scheme. It may also seek an increase in the living alone allowance. Another Fianna Fáil source said its position won’t be finalised until early next week, adding that no figures had yet been put on demands. However, the source stressed it would be mulling over what was “affordable and sustainable” in its considerations. The Independent Alliance, meanwhile, is understood to want a return of the €850 bereavement grant, as well as a restoration of the telephone allowance for older people.

Ahead of her first Budget meeting with Mr Donohoe, Ms Doherty (inset) said a priority for her was measures to combat the child poverty line. She is particularly interested in improving supports for lone parents.

She confirmed she would seek a €5-a-week hike for pensioners, but also said: “I’m nearly going in and fighting for everybody.”

Perhaps her most revealing comment was when she said: “Look, I could spend €1bn all on my own and I could do it in about 10 minutes.”

It was acknowledgement of the huge demand on the resources of her department.

In the context of the overall €20bn budget of her department, the sums that will be on offer in Budget 2018 will seem like peanuts.

Hostilities could yet break out as negotiations reach crunch time over the coming week and the various parties refine their demands.

The 1.5 million people covered by various welfare payments represent a lot of votes, with an election likely in the not too distant future.

Perhaps the real battle will occur after Budget Day, in the scramble to claim credit for what little scraps have been secured.