Dorcha Lee on the rising tensions ahead of Sunday’s vote in Catalonia
BY now, thousands of Irish holidaymakers will be basking in the memories of the Catalan costas, re-enjoying the sun, sea, sand and sangria they enjoyed. Despite the recent attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils, life goes on.
With tourists back on the Las Ramblas promenade, and on beaches, it is business as usual, but with heightened security measures.
Nevertheless, this weekend could turn out to be very turbulent indeed, as Catalan nationalists make their definitive move towards independence. The process does not, however, start and end with tomorrow’s independence referendum. In any case, the referendum is already compromised by the Spanish government’s action in sending in its national police forces, the Guardia Civil, to seize ballot papers, arrest key officials, and disrupt the mailing of warrants for polling stations’ staff.
This action is in clear defiance of an overwhelming majority of Catalans (70pc) who want the referendum to go ahead. The Guardia Civil have also raided regional government offices. The regional police, the Mossos d’Esquadra, have been employed to protect the Guardia Civil from the civil population, while they carry out their operations.
The core issue is national identity and, arguably, the historical failure to accommodate Catalan nationalism within the wider Spanish nation. While the Spanish constitution recognises the Catalans as culturally and historically a nationality, the constitutional court interpretation is that a nationality does not constitute a nation. Unlike the UK, where, for example, Scotland is recognised as a nation, Madrid recognises Catalonia as an autonomous region. The principle of national selfdetermination applies to nations, but not to autonomous regions. The Catalan nationalists currently have a majority in the regional parliament in favour of independence. If the referendum takes place and they get a majority ‘Yes’ vote, they intend to make an immediate unilateral declaration of independence, on Monday. If the nationalists were ultimately to succeed, the consequences for Spain of a fully independent Catalonia would be dire.
Catalonia is by far the richest region. With 13pc of the population, it pays 20pc of the running costs of Spain.
Other regions of Spain are watching closely. The Basques in particular, but also Valencia and the Balearics. These latter two regions speak dialects of Catalan.
Should Catalonia become independent, Valencia and the Balearics would more likely seek affiliation with Catalonia instead of outright independence.
In such a scenario, unless Spain federalises rapidly, the kingdom could well disintegrate.
At the same time, while Catalonia is well placed to prosper economically, the move to independence is also fraught with difficulty for Catalans. It is not just that a majority of Spanish people are against Catalonia becoming independent, but perhaps up to half of Catalans are also opposed, or ambivalent, to the idea.
Indeed, the current action by Madrid could ultimately lead to a polarisation of Catalan society, not dissimilar
If the nationalists were ultimately to succeed, the consequences for Spain of a fully independent Catalonia would be dire
to Northern Ireland.
Nor are Catalan unionists passive. Even this observer has been savaged and denigrated, by a well organised and sophisticated unionist blogsite.
As the week has progressed, the counter-referendum police action has tried to increasingly make the holding of a referendum untenable.
The regional government had to decide either to cancel or postpone the referendum, or to attempt to muddle through tomorrow. A botched, compromised referendum will satisfy no one, other than to discredit further the Spanish government in the eyes of both Catalan nationalists, and Catalan unionists who had a good chance of winning a no vote in the referendum.
Madrid has kept open all options, including force, to prevent the referendum taking place. Calls have also been made from right-wing websites to put the regional police force under direct control of Madrid, and to arrest the nationalist leadership.
While considered as a last resort, the deployment of Spanish troops cannot be ruled out.
Indeed, the Spanish constitution directly tasks the armed forces with preserving the territorial integrity of the kingdom. In this regard, the older generation still recall January 26, 1939, when Franco’s tanks headed down Barcelona’s main avenue, the Avinguda Diagonal, to bring the area back under Madrid control.
So, what next? While Catalan nationalists have long ruled out the use of force to achieve independence, passive resistance to Spanish rule is possible, including largescale protests and industrial action.
COULD such action affect the tourism industry? It certainly could, if it led to airports being closed or to a curtailment of other public services.
The regional Assembly could also meet next week and declare independence, anyway, following the Irish example of the First Dáil, in January 1919, when it convened in the Mansion House and declared the break from the UK.
At the same time, Spanish and Catalans share a stubborn optimism, and a crisis avoiding compromise may yet emerge.
In the meantime, don’t change your travel plans. Colonel Dorcha Lee (Retd) is a former Irish Defence Forces Provost Marshal and Director of Military Police. He is co-author of ‘Politica de Defensa I Estat Propi’, a study on a possible defence policy for an independent Catalonia.