Martin will keep his distance from Adams for now – but it may be a different story after an election
NO doubt Micheál Martin and some of his Fianna Fáil heavy hitters are telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth – as they see it. So why is it that some of us still suffer from nagging doubts that they might be fudging things a bit?
To accuse them of a lie would be too strong an accusation in the circumstances. In fairness to both the leader and his party, there is, as of now, no tangible evidence they are guilty of some kind of collective smokescreen.
But those nagging doubts simply won’t go away. Will Martin really put his entire political future on the line by leading Fianna Fáil into the opposition benches after the general election, rather than signing up to a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition government?
Will such a decision provoke a heave against his leadership? Will he be able to hold in check those in his party who will see a deal with Gerry Adams and Co as their only way to attain power?
In fairness to Micheál Martin, he has spoken with some passion of his loathing for Sinn Féin ideology, and of his personal antipathy to any future coalition arrangement with that political grouping. There is no reason to doubt his sincerity – but it must also be remembered such a dogmatic stance by him is also shrewd politics.
It is vital Fianna Fáil distances itself from Gerry Adams and Sinn Féin between now and polling day, so as not to alienate undecided middleincome voters. Any hint of such a post-election deal would be anathema to many would-be Fianna Fáil supporters. There is also the political reality that on the ground in many key constituencies, candidates from both parties are engaged in bitter – and often personal – battles to get elected next time. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are in direct head-on confrontation for some pivotal Dáil seats.
But such considerations aside, the reality is the next government will, as always, be determined by Dáil arithmetic. The zero-sum game is that it will be either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, plus ‘others’, who will clamber to power. The problem for the two main parties will be in persuading a sufficient number of ‘others’ to join them in a working Dáil majority.
There was a time when Labour would have the numbers to nudge either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael over the line. But that is unlikely to be the case next time round. Confronted with competition from all sides for its traditional voter base, Labour is facing an uphill battle to substantially increase its current paltry Dáil count.
But Sinn Féin will return with a block of TDs, with the objective of striking a coalition deal with another party. The temptation for some in Fianna Fáil to embrace such a liaison will be overwhelming if it is the deciding factor in being in or out of power. The other option of securing a Dáil majority – a historic realignment between the two civil war parties – seems to generate little or no support in either the Micheál Martin or Leo Varadkar camps.
This week, Billy Kelleher, one of Fianna Fáil’s more centrist TDs, was quizzed on TV3’s ‘Tonight’ programme on a possible future link-up with Sinn Féin. He gave the standard party line that no such arrangement is being contemplated. But at one point, he uttered the intriguing aside: “Fianna Fáil would have been very involved in moving Sinn Féin from the path they had been pursuing for many years.” Such a comment does beg the question: does his party feel it can move Sinn Féin into even more acceptable territory should it be decided they go into government together?
He went on stress “there is quite a difference” between the parties on economic matters, and on “attitudes to society” in general. Yet his comments left this unanswered question – will certain significant policy shifts by Sinn Féin make it an acceptable coalition partner?
As of now, relations will remain tense and competitive between the parties, as each seeks to maximise its Dáil strength. But realpolitik will come into play big-time – depending on possible Dáil scenarios – after the election.
It is then we may hear once again those plaintive self-justifying words so often used in the past by politicians desperate for power. Could it be this time round Micheál Martin – or somebody who unseats him from the leadership and is more amenable to a deal with Sinn Féin – will cleave to the old refrain?
“The people have spoken in the election,” will most likely be the opening line. And so it will continue.
“Fianna Fáil went to the electorate with a clear objective – to secure an overall majority to give this country the government it deserves. However, the reality is that, in their wisdom, the voters decided otherwise. As always, the people are sovereign – and of course we abide by their decision.
“The Fianna Fáil party, in light of these new circumstances, is now faced with a clear-cut choice. We can form a coalition with Sinn Féin. Alternatively, we can allow Fine Gael, with its Thatcherite ideology, propped up by a hotch-potch of small groupings and Independents, to create havoc with the lives of countless voters, barely recovering from years of austerity.
“Fianna Fáil fully accepts it gave an undertaking prior to the election that it would not enter coalition government with Sinn Féin. However, in light of the stark choices brought about by the election, we feel we have a bounden and historic duty, to put the country first.
“We are confident the programme for government – which has been the subject of such intense discussions between ourselves and Sinn Féin over the past few weeks – will form the basis of an administration that will bring about an overall rise in living standards. Most importantly, in light of Sinn Féin’s culture and ideology, we are assured an agreed strategy in relation to Northern Ireland, will mark a new way forward for relations between Dublin and London.”
If Micheál Martin’s career is at stake – and if his party is confronted with more wilderness years in opposition – will a speech broadly of this nature be made?
Maybe it will. Maybe it won’t.
‘The temptation for some in Fianna Fáil to embrace such a liaison will be overwhelming if it is the deciding factor in being in or out of power’