Our similarities with Spain abound
IS CORK a nation and should it have a right to statehood? While nobody would deny that the people of Cork have a well-developed sense of their own identity, not many would claim they are a nation unto themselves. Fewer still want the Rebel County to break away from this Republic and form an independent sovereign state.
But if a big majority of people in that county, or any other county, came to view themselves as sufficiently different and, over a protracted period of time, sought the right to self-determination, there is no reason in principle as to why they should be denied it.
Keeping a people in a political entity against their will can be poisonous. Often it can be worse. But how divorce happens, and on what terms, can also lead to real trouble. History is littered with examples of tragic endings in such situations.
The last time Europe experienced such a tragedy was in the Balkans in the 1990s. If there was a single trigger moment in that bloody conflict, it was the unilateral declaration of independence by Slovenia, then a region of Yugoslavia. The break-up of that entity led to years of vicious fighting in which well over 100,000 people died and many more were forced to flee from places in which they had lived for generations.
In Spain, the regional government of Catalonia is now set to follow the same course as Slovenia in 1991. It has hinted strongly, following last Sunday’s independence referendum, that it would unilaterally declare independence in the coming days.
I lived in Spain in the 1990s and spent more than a decade covering its politics and economics for the Economist Intelligence Unit. Two big things always stood out: how many similarities there are between the histories of Ireland and Spain over the past century; and how much deeper political divisions are there compared to here.
Ireland and Spain are recovering from property-centric economic crashes that took place after transformative booms that began in the mid-1990s. Before those booms, the two countries were among the poorest in western Europe, in part because both decided to keep their economies closed in the decades after World War II. Both countries eventually began opening up in the 1960s. They joined the European Union within eight years of each other.
Neither country participated in World War II, but both had civil wars in the first half of the 20th century. There are many other parallels, but it is in our respective civil wars and their aftermaths where similarities end.
Spain’s civil war was incomparably bloodier than Ireland’s, with hundreds of thousands killed. It was followed by decades of dictatorship during which a repressive boot was kept on the throat of the losing side and areas with strong regional identities.
Bitterness and resentment from those times remains much in evidence to this day. A great many individuals and families still strongly identify with one side or the other. It is striking how many people recall names of family members who were killed by the other side. Even more striking is how the passing of time, in many cases, has not lessened anger towards the perpetrators and those whom they identify as their political successors.
Across the political spectrum in Spain there is dogmatism, rigidity and bristling hostility to different perspectives. That is to be seen on both sides of the rapidly deepening Catalan crisis.
While Catalonia is a nation by almost any measure, there has never been an election or opinion poll in the region showing majority support for leaving Spain and establishing an independent state. The regional government in Barcelona pushed ahead with last Sunday’s referendum despite having been elected on less than 48pc of the vote in 2015. It also did so despite a prohibition on holding such a vote contained in the Spanish constitution, which the people of Catalonia overwhelmingly voted for in 1978.
Until last Sunday the government in Madrid had responded to the escalation tactics with little subtlety, imagination or intelligence. The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, who is among the most unimpressive political leaders I have ever met, was dogmatic, but did little. The deployment of non-Catalan police to the region and their disproportionate use of force on Sunday has made a bad situation much worse.
ADECLARATION of Catalan independence now would make it even worse. Consider what would happen if it were to happen. If anyone thought that the British government was reckless and irresponsible to fail to prepare for Brexit, the shock for the people of Catalonia of a cliff-edge exit in days, rather than years, from both Spain and the EU would be infinitely greater.
Economically, the region is much more dependent on cross-border trade than Britain. As has become clear to almost everyone in Europe over the past 18 months, putting up barriers to trade is a complex and difficult exercise. To make matters worse, Catalonia uses the euro, which would probably not continue if it were outside the EU. The region would face the prospect of having to create a new currency overnight.
Economic crisis would not make the internal politics any easier. Even if recent events do increase support for independence, millions of people in the region give at least as much importance to this Spanish identity as to their Catalan identity. They would need to be convinced that losing their Spanish citizenship, along with its rights and benefits, would be worth it. As many Catalan nationalists care little about the concerns of those who feel more Spanish, it is hard to see that happening under current conditions.
The Catalan government and pro-independence supporters have raised the profile of their cause internationally and won a moral victory by their behaviour in the face of violence last Sunday.
That would seem like a good basis to persuade more Catalans, Spaniards and other countries that there is a good case for agreed and fair statehood.
Unilaterally declaring independence with the ground so unprepared can only be the basis for further confrontation and division.
‘If anyone thought the British government was reckless and irresponsible to fail to prepare for Brexit, the shock for the people of Catalonia of a cliff-edge exit in days, rather than years, from both Spain and the EU would be infinitely greater’